Scared Monkeys Discussion Forum

Here's what sober budget analysts (from both parties) see when they focus on 2020 and beyond: The well-off will pay higher federal taxes, for sure. But ordinary folks will pay more, too. They will pay as tax burdens diffuse into the costs of things they buy. They will likely pay more for fuel and electricity, as the costs of carbon permits and renewable-fuels mandates get built in. They may be asked to pay a European-style value-added tax. And they will pay on the other side of the ledger: Their retirement benefits will get clipped.

The federal government will get bigger, but not big enough to keep all the promises Washington has made. So the normal age to receive Social Security retirement benefits, already rising in steps to 67 for those born in 1960 or later, will increase further, perhaps to 69. High earners will pay more in and get less back in retirement. Call it a "tax" or call it "means testing"—it's government, and it will make you poorer.

Meanwhile, the need to contain Medicare costs and to cover the uninsured will also result in the better-off paying more, either through taxes, insurance premiums or both. "Whether we call it premiums or whether we call it taxes, it's going to be income related," says John Rother, executive vice president of policy and strategy for the AARP, the 40-million-member old folks' lobby.