RUMORS OF BREAKING NEWS # 5

[Kelly]

Kat- My bad

[dragonfly]

OK, here's my scenario.  Joran, the brothers and Nat leave the club.  Was she drugged or merely intoxicated?  No idea.  Nat & Joran are in the back.  The brothers drop Nat & Joran off (don't know where).  They leave.  Some time later, they get a call from Joran to pick him up.  They do and he's freaked.  Makes up a story about Nat running off or something.  They take him home.

Word is out that Nat is missing.  Joran tells the brothers that the story is they dropped Nat at the hotel.  He's freaking out and begs the brothers to go along with this story.  They don't really know what happened, but Joran is their friend so they agree.  Maybe they suspect there's more to the story, maybe not.  Don't know.

So they're arrested, only Joran knows what really happened that night and he's not talking.  The other 2 don't "crack" because they really don't have anything concrete.

There you have it.  Remember you read it here first.  

It's been said before, and personally - but unfortunately - I think this is the most likely scenario.  

Here's the evidence for this theory as I see it:

1.  The intense focus specifically on Joran by the authorities.
2.  That Joran changed his story twice and is now agreeing with the the brothers.
3.  Deepak's statement that he though Holloway would turn up later.
4.  Deepak and Satish's friend's statement that he thinks they are covering for Joran.

Now, obviously, this isn't conclusive by any means, but it makes me think that this is the most likely theory at this point.

This is where I'm at too.  I just think this is very likely.  I still am VERY open to the possibility that the brothers were more deeply involved too.   The only reason I am leaning more toward this is because both brothers are telling the same "changed" story after being put in jail and I am assuming by everything I have read and heard that they are seperated.  So, that means the brothers could not have talked and changed story after being put in jail.  I may be wrong about that, but that is where I am leaning.  I also think the ONLY reason Joran may have changed his story to fit the brothers is because he was confronted with evidence that supports their story.

[Kat]

Don't worry Kelly...no harm done!

[jennya]

This is the bible code page that was referred to last week, I;m not sure if it's the same one.

http://www.revelation13.net/KingJames2c.html

[cjm]

I'm not saying that the single perpetrator theory can't be true. I'm just saying that it's not the Most Believable Scenario (MBS). If we assume that all 3 were involved, then it is much easier to explain transportation home for Joran and it's much easier to explain why all 3 went along with the phoney security guard story. You may be right, but so far the MBS involves all 3.

I'm going to disagree with that, because I think that if all 3 of them were in on it, at least one of them would have cracked by now.  So Kat's MBS has Joran acting alone...at least on the murder.

I agree with you!!

[chloe2]

 There is no mention also what the shoveling match was about.. at CnC was it over Natalee or some disparaging remark that someone may have said?   .

Comp-- I don't think it was a 'shoveling' match. That's what's going on here - everyone's digging for answers.

[DT]

The wide variety of speculation as to what happen shows that none of us really have any concrete idea as to what happened.  As I see it all options are open, though some are more likely than others.

[dragonfly]

 There is no mention also what the shoveling match was about.. at CnC was it over Natalee or some disparaging remark that someone may have said?   .

Comp-- I don't think it was a 'shoveling' match. That's what's going on here - everyone's digging for answers.

lol.  Good point!!!!  

[dragonfly]

The wide variety of speculation as to what happen shows that none of us really have any concrete idea as to what happened.  As I see it all options are open, though some are more likely than others.

Exactly.  And this is a great forum to debate them while there is no new news coming out.  

[nancy_drew]

cjm & Kat:

I agree with both of you.  I think there is a chance the brothers didn't know what happened after they dropped them off.  Since Natalee was missing it makes sense Joran might have urged them to come up with a story that would keep them all out of it.

It's very possible.

[nancy_drew]

And, why worry they haven't cracked yet.  It's early...detectives suggest this takes time to do skillful interviews that put pressure on the perp.

[RubaRiba]

This is the bible code page that was referred to last week, I;m not sure if it's the same one.

http://www.revelation13.net/KingJames2c.html

Thank you jennya, this is the one that I read.

Like I said, I think some of their own assumptions went way off based, but when I read through those (word search) charts, it gave me the willies.

[DT]

OK, here's my scenario.  Joran, the brothers and Nat leave the club.  Was she drugged or merely intoxicated?  No idea.  Nat & Joran are in the back.  The brothers drop Nat & Joran off (don't know where).  They leave.  Some time later, they get a call from Joran to pick him up.  They do and he's freaked.  Makes up a story about Nat running off or something.  They take him home.

Word is out that Nat is missing.  Joran tells the brothers that the story is they dropped Nat at the hotel.  He's freaking out and begs the brothers to go along with this story.  They don't really know what happened, but Joran is their friend so they agree.  Maybe they suspect there's more to the story, maybe not.  Don't know.

So they're arrested, only Joran knows what really happened that night and he's not talking.  The other 2 don't "crack" because they really don't have anything concrete.

There you have it.  Remember you read it here first.  

It's been said before, and personally - but unfortunately - I think this is the most likely scenario.  

Here's the evidence for this theory as I see it:

1.  The intense focus specifically on Joran by the authorities.
2.  That Joran changed his story twice and is now agreeing with the the brothers.
3.  Deepak's statement that he though Holloway would turn up later.
4.  Deepak and Satish's friend's statement that he thinks they are covering for Joran.

Now, obviously, this isn't conclusive by any means, but it makes me think that this is the most likely theory at this point.

This is where I'm at too.  I just think this is very likely.  I still am VERY open to the possibility that the brothers were more deeply involved too.   The only reason I am leaning more toward this is because both brothers are telling the same "changed" story after being put in jail and I am assuming by everything I have read and heard that they are seperated.  So, that means the brothers could not have talked and changed story after being put in jail.  I may be wrong about that, but that is where I am leaning.  I also think the ONLY reason Joran may have changed his story to fit the brothers is because he was confronted with evidence that supports their story.

The only thing that's keeping me from having the brothers play a much bigger role in her disappearence is the statement where they said they though she would turn.

[cjm]

cjm & Kat:

I agree with both of you.  I think there is a chance the brothers didn't know what happened after they dropped them off.  Since Natalee was missing it makes sense Joran might have urged them to come up with a story that would keep them all out of it.

It's very possible.

That's exactly the way I am thinking.  I think they realized once they were arrested that Joran could be lying to them so they told the truth.

[dragonfly]

cjm & Kat:

I agree with both of you.  I think there is a chance the brothers didn't know what happened after they dropped them off.  Since Natalee was missing it makes sense Joran might have urged them to come up with a story that would keep them all out of it.

It's very possible.

That's exactly the way I am thinking.  I think they realized once they were arrested that Joran could be lying to them so they told the truth.

Exactly, the boys changed their stories very soon after being detained.  That's when they could have realized the seriousness of this.

DT, while I admit that Depak could have just said that about her turning up to make himself look more innocent, it did stand out to me and make me take another look as to whether he even thought Joran did anything to her.

[Compananzi]

I've been thinking to myself the past couple of days, "What if none of the 3 guys knows what exactly happened to her?"

I mean, what if the last any of them saw her, she was alive but possibly in a dangerous situation – possibly with someone that these guys would be afraid of. Or perhaps they were all under the influence of some substance, and they don't exactly remember what happened....

That would explain why they haven't cracked under pressure.

I think its kinda simplistic to think the Arubian police can't sort a lie from a true story.  I think also with experience they can tell right away something is wrong.  Sure this is a high profile, and you probably have competing forces, FBI, Holland all assisting but making the investigation harder but because so many priorities are set and changed on a daily a basis .....

Its starting to really get to a point where you have to assume alot in order to make a story stick.  For example,  a 17 year old allowed to drive, drink and party late at night.  Well that is really not out of the ordinary.  The only oddity is the Casino, but in aruba that is the main attraction.  So I really don't see a red flag now in regards to those activities. Maybe he really enjoyed poker?
The GBH or ruffies theory: Well we now have to assume Joran is a drug dealer, and or part of a Columbian kidnap ring. Now that could be  probably, but I dunno, Joran had friends both male and female, he had privileges, and he had to be studios to a point to get good grades. If they did drug her for instance, then they must have a place to rape her, surely not in the car or some yucky Lover Lane...I don't think so, they guys do not look they wanna get dirty or sweat.  Also the possiblity of others in the Lover land kinda make that a leap of faith that no one would be there to see.

[nancy_drew]

OR, since their story ends with the call/text message from Joran....we don't really know what happened next.  Did they go back and help him?  Or, did they meet next at the pool and came up with the story?

I may have missed some news this morning as things move so fast here...

[nisxan]

Compananzi,

I didn't mean that the police can't tell a lie from the truth...but what if these guys actually BELIEVE what they're saying to an extent. They remember being with her, but at some point they lost track of her somehow and are themselves trying to piece together what happened.

At this point, you could make a case for almost ANY scenario.

[Compananzi]

Compananzi,

I didn't mean that the police can't tell a lie from the truth...but what if these guys actually BELIEVE what they're saying to an extent. They remember being with her, but at some point they lost track of her somehow and are themselves trying to piece together what happened.

At this point, you could make a case for almost ANY scenario.

I am amazed that there is no confession at this point..

I cannot accept a 17, 18, and 21, never been in trouble with the law, never had any real major family disfunction, apparently have a lot of friends, and activities, all are working or have some extraculicular activity,  broken down by the police, FBI or the dutch interrogators.

[MissyRose]

Any new news?