Run away and alive

[Duthiss]

I do not know Joran's family, but I do know families like his. I kinda imagine how he was brought up. Those parents are great loving people. That is why it kept puzzling me how Joran could get involved.

I think Natalee wanted to disapear and the boys helped her. At least they thought they were. For me that explains Joran's arogant attitude towards Natalee's father: he realy thought he was helping a maiden in distress. That made him (childisch) hostile towards her father.

My gues is that the negotiations right now are not with kidnappers but with Natalee herself. Could that not explain that Natalee's parents seem to be feeling better already? And I will be very happy for them when she come's home, they realy must have had a very bad time.

Sorry for bad English, I'm Dutch.

[Thumper56]

Traveling around the web and posting this same thing are we? Friend of Yorans?

[Duthiss]

No, I have no connection to him.

I just think the way and time she vanished is very strange. So strange that it keeps alot of people glued to the news. And because it is so strange everyone is convinced something must have happened. But maybe we are overlooking the most simple explanation there is.

[Thumper56]

Agreed...Murder is strange..

[Karl]

Her mother seems very overbearing and you can see why someone might want to get away from someone like that.   In addition it sounds like the girl led a very sheltered life and maybe now want to make up for lost time.

Hopefully you are right as it would really be the best ending to this situation.

[Karl]

Her mother seems very overbearing and you can see why someone might want to get away from someone like that.   In addition it sounds like the girl led a very sheltered life and maybe now want to make up for lost time.

Hopefully you are right as it would really be the best ending to this situation.

[SteveDinMD]

I’ve been thinking lately about the prospects for Natalee still being alive. As I see it, there are three scenarios under which this could be the case. First, she could be lost, an amnesiac, unable to locate her family. Second, she could have willingly run off. Third, she could be held against her will. Below I discuss each possibilty and its relative likelihood.

I consider it to be very likely that Natalee is lost in Aruba, suffering from amnesia, or the like. All the recent publicity has made Natalee the most recognizable person in Aruba. If she were to have been afflicted while in Aruba (and there is no indication that she left the island) and has been free to move about ever since, I can’t imagine that she wouldn’t have been rescued by someone long ago.

That Natalee would willingly run away appears unlikely given her age and circumstances. A recent high school graduate looking forward to university in the Fall, her future appeared bright, not something one would ordinarily run away from. It is true that teenagers, especially girls, run away all the time, but this phenomenon is most typically associated with seriously dysfunctional family situations — the exact opposite of what has been reported about the Twitty’s. Even if Natalee wanted to escape her family, all she’d have to do would be to wait a couple of months and go off to school. There would be no need for her to run away NOW. Moreover, if she DID run away, where could she go without her passort? What is she wearing? All her luggage and clothing were recovered at the HI. What is she living on? Whatever money she brought with her on vacation would quickly be depleted. If Natalee were over 30, with few prospects, debt-ridden, sought by police, or facing personal crises, I’d be more inclined to consider the possibility, but not given the factual circumstances as I understand them.

This leaves one remaining possiblity to examine: that Natalee is alive and being held against her will. There are two categories under which any any possible scenario along these lines could fall. First, she could, as many have already speculated, be held for purposes of international prostitution. Second, she could be held for “private pleasure.” Each category, however, appears unlikely for the reasons discussed below.

I tend to discount the possiblity that Natalee is being held for forced prostitution because her situation is at such variance with the profile for such victims. Human traffickers generally restrict their activities to jurisdictions under the control of weak or corrupt governments, such as one finds in East Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe. The principle sources for white women in the international sex trade are generally restricted to: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the former Yugoslavia, and to a lesser extent Romania, Slovakia, the Czech Rebublic, Poland, and the Baltic states. Western women are almost never targeted. Human traffickers are also very selective in their choice of victims. They prefer women in financial straits, and those with little or no family to speak of. Such people are seldom missed. Even if they are, there will likely be few or no resources devoted to their recovery. Finally, professional traffickers operate far differently from what we’ve seen in this case. They employ agents (modelling & employment agencies, etc.) in the victims’ native countries to lure them far from home and into the clutches of the prostitution ring. This is much cleaner than simply snatching women off the street. It also affords the traffickers an added advantage by allowing them to closely examine each prospective victim’s personal information prior to abducting her.

Even if, against all odds, Natalee had fallen into forced prostitution, her prospects for survival would be slim because she isn’t “marketable” at this point. The business model for forced prostitution assumes that Natalee’s captors would derive a revenue stream from selling her body nightly to all comers. This can’t work. Thanks to the high-profile media coverage and the Internet, Natalee is now one of the most recognizable people in the world. It wouldn’t take long before some “John” would recognize her and alert the authorities in the hope of earning the $55,000.00 reward. Realizing this, I’d have to assume that professional traffickers would have killed Natalee some time ago and carefully disposed of her body in order to escape exposure and prosecution.

The remaining possiblity is that Natalee is being held for “private pleasure.” Again, I can think of but three possible scenarios to explore. First, I doubt that she is being held in what amounts to “concubinage.” There are few in this world (e.g. Sultan of Brunei & Saudi Royal Family) who can afford to indulge in such things, and they generally don’t do business with teenaged punks who snatch women off the street. They operate much more like professional human traffickers, employing worldwide agents to seek out women. A second possiblity is that Natalee is being held by a gang such as the Bloods, Crips, or biker gangs in the US. In such case, she could expect to be “passed around” the club for a while before being released or killed. I don’t know if Aruba has the equivalent of such gangs (I doubt it), but if it did, I’d have to believe that all the publicity would have induced them to kill Natalee by now. The last scenario I can think of is that Natalee is being held by some psychopath. There have been such cases in the US, though they’ve been rare. There was a case some years ago, in Philadelphia as I recall, where a psycho adbucted and held women in a pit dug beneath his basement floor. He kept the women alive for some weeks or months, during which time he continuously abused them sexually. Ultimately, however, the women were killed. If Natalee were being held in Aruba by a psychopath, she would probably have to be his first victim. I doubt that Aruba has had a large enough incidence of missing persons to account for the activities of such a person. Again, this scenario is very, very unlikely.

For all the reasons discussed above, I believe the probability that Natalee is alive is quite low. It’s certainly less than 5%, and probably less than 1%. I hope I’ve overlooked something, or that Natalee somehow beats the odds, but I’m not terribly optimistic right now.

[Karl]

You make some good points.  I agree that the fact that she left all her clothes and passport seem to indicate that she did not runaway.
The one way I can see her running away is if she was very drunk and passed out somewhere, when she woke up she had missed her plane and the search had begun so she panicked and hid out.    The only way this could work is if she was recieving assistance from some other people, like a bunch of wealthy kids on an Island.  As much as anything I think I hope this is the case.

[blfit]

Because her bags were packed and her passport was still in her room makes it seem as if she didn't run away.  What is troubling to me is that there are quite a few people involved.  How many people does it take to kill one 18yr old girl?  Would you even want your friends to know if you killed someone?  Maybe Joran needed help disposing of the body, but they are talking like there might be more arrests.  It seems bigger than what is on the surface here.  I obviously don't know the answer and I don't think anyone does right now...just a thought.

[WonderWoman]

Her mother seems very overbearing

so it seems.....

thursday morning my friend called me (he goes to aruba international school and his mother is a teacher there and he is a straight A student ) in panic and said there are family members here at school and they are sharing flyers and the flyers said : GIRL KIDNAPPED ASK JORAN VANDER SLOOT (thats my friends name ) the principle asked them to leave and they did

[WonderWoman]

seems guilty before charged has been going on for a while

[SteveDinMD]

Having followed this story very closely for over a week, I’m absolutely fascinated by this Joran kid. He’s 17 years old in a jurisdiction where the minimum age to drive, drink, gamble, etc. is 18. Nevertheless, he boldly drives his car all over the island without benefit of a license, whiles away his days openly gambling in the casinos, and spends his nights carousing in drunken revelry at the most popular watering holes until last call. Does anyone else find this at all peculiar? This kid didn’t just start this behavior 2 weeks ago. My guess is that he didn’t set out on his life of debauchery any later than his 14th birthday, and no one since that time has ever seen fit to intrude on his “good time. ” He evidently enjoys some sort of local “immunity,” I imagine as a consequence of his father’s prominence in government and community circles.

Consider that Aruba is governed under permissive Dutch law that tolerates drugs, and honors prostitution with legal recognition. Does anybody seriously doubt under these circumstances that Joran is into drugs, or that he frequents the island’s brothels? Then there are the reports that he’s violence prone, having thrown a classmate through a plate glass window. Does anyone imagine that he would shrink from slapping a girl around? There is also the report that he produced/sold his own pornography, in particular a video showing the gang rape of a 14 year old girl. Why, then, might he be shy about doing the same thing to an 18 year old like Natalee? Dutch law, by the way, doesn’t have any problem with child pornography, either. It’s “all good” to them, I suppose.

Hey, this kid is 17 years old, and he’s playing with the complete “Charlie Sheen Fun Kit,” every night, as though it were NOTHING. There’s no escaping it, people; this kid is absolutely, morally DEAD. I wouldn’t put anything past him, certainly not rape, not even murder. While the police were taking Joran into custody, they should have slapped the cuffs on his old man for good measure. The acorn falls not far from the tree. Congratulations! Judge Van Der Sloot, you’ve successfully raised a perfect, 17 year old degenerate.

[AZLady]

I think you've all forgot the most obvious kidnapping scenario.  Aruba is quite near Argentina and Columbia.  Our own DEA has been working quite hard for several years to shut down the Columbian drug cartels.  In fact, if you visit the DEA website, the lead story is "Colombian Drug and
Money Laundering Ring Shattered" on June 14, 2005.  However, this is just the latest bust.  Click on Recent Cases in the left menu (http://www.usdoj.gov/dea/recent_cases.htm).  Interesting reading.  However, after reading "The Drug Trade in Colombia: A Threat Assessment,"  at http://www.usdoj.gov/dea/pubs/intel/02006/index.html#11a I became aware that a rather bizarre scenario might have occurred.  
This is a quote from the article:

"In addition, Colombia is the kidnapping capital of the world, with an estimated 2,000 to 3,000 people kidnapped each year. According to the U.S. State Department, from 1980 to 2000, nearly 120 U.S. citizens were kidnapped, primarily by leftist insurgent groups. Insurgent groups frequently establish roadblocks in order to rob and/or kidnap travelers. Colombian law mandates that individuals must coordinate their efforts to resolve kidnapping cases with the Ministerio de Defensa/Programa Para la Defensa de la Libertad Personal (Office of the Anti-Kidnapping Director)."

"There have been numerous instances in Colombia of criminals drugging and robbing individuals. According to the U.S. State Department, criminals in Colombia sometimes use scopolamine17 to incapacitate tourists in order to rob them. The drug is administered in various methods including drinks, cigarettes, and gum. The drug disorients the victim and can cause prolonged unconsciousness and serious medical problems."

Also in the same article is this paragraph:
"Death Squads—the Private Armies of the Cartels. On several occasions, drug traffickers formed their own private armies, commonly known as death squads. In December 1981, the Medellín Cartel formed death squads known as Muerte a Secuestradores (Death to Kidnappers or MAS), in response to the M-19 kidnapping of the youngest sister of the Ochoa brothers. The MAS squads killed over 100 M-19 members before the Ochoa sister was released in February 1982. Likewise, in September 1992, the 6th Front of the FARC kidnapped a sister of Cali Cartel kingpin Jose Santacruz-Londono and demanded a $12-million ransom. Santacruz allegedly refused to pay any ransom and retaliated by forming a death squad that kidnapped or killed some 20 individuals associated with the FARC. In January 1993, the FARC 6th Front released Cristina Santacruz unharmed. "

I heard on FOX news the reporter with Diaria (sp?) going on about following some people who had taken Nat and were trying to drive to Columbia.  I dismissed it as a publicity stunt, until I read the above articles on the DEA website.  Perhaps it isn't a publicity stunt.  Perhaps Nat has been kidnapped by one of the Columbian drug cartels as retaliation for the extradiction of Columbian drug lords to the states to stand trial.  I would not want to be in on those negotiations!  I keep telling myself this is just too far out--but it might explain a lot of the references we've heard this week.  Who knows?

[CAMDOG]

I don't find Natalee's mother "overbearing" at all.  If that happened to my daughter, I would be worse than a grizzly bear on steroids.  If she were not pushing the police down there to do something, Joran and his little punk friends would be in the casinos right now, and if anyone were on the hot seat, it would be the innocent security guards.  I think Natalee's mother is exhibiting an incredible amount of self control.

[Karl]

The comments about the mother are being offered in regards to whether or not Natalee could be a runaway.  Two things seem to indicate a strained mother daughter relationship.  First, the fact that the girl went on a week long bender indicates a troubled home life. Second, within less than 24 hours the mom had made herself the center of attention, seems like a classic stage mom.
These comments are not so much to disparage the family as they are address the possibility that she ran away.

[diverpam]

Two things seem to indicate a strained mother daughter relationship.  First, the fact that the girl went on a week long bender indicates a troubled home life.  

Your statement is inappropriate and completely off base. There is absolutely nothing to substantiate that Natalee went on a "week long bender. "  First of all the trip was only five days, not a week.

She was there with her friends celebrating graduation and there were seven adults with the group. You make it sound like Natalee was lying drunk in the gutter every night. That is totally untrue. As an 18 year old she was legally allowed to drink. She was drinking responsibly per eye witness accounts.

 

Second, within less than 24 hours the mom had made herself the center of attention, seems like a classic stage mom.

Beth Holloway Twitty is one of the sweetest, kindest, most unassuming people I have ever known. I had the pleasure of living next door to Beth and her family for about five years when Natalee was a young child.  Beth is a wonderful loving mother and you couldn't be further from the truth when it comes to Beth's personality.

Beth came forward out of desparation... doing whatever she could to get the right people involved to find and save her daughter. She is normally soft-spoken, sweet, and reserved. She is a desperate mother agonizing over her daughter's disappearance. She did what any mother would do to try and save her child.

How she has maintained her composure and gathered the strength to endure this ordeal I cannot imagine. My heart aches every time I see the pain in her face. She has handled this situation with so much grace and shown gratitude to the people of Aruba and throughout the US for their kindness and support. There is no melodrama, no "Oh poor me" and no hysterics. It is all about finding her daughter and bringing her home. I am so proud of the way she has handled herself.  

Natalee and Beth are the innocent victims here. Please refrain from attacking them.

diverpam

[SteveDinMD]

To believe that Natalee ran away flies in the face of the facts and logic.  If she ran away, she did so without her passport, her clothes, and any means of support.  Where could she go?  What is she wearing?  How is she supporting herself?  It doesn't make any sense.  Moreover, if Natalee wanted to get away from her family, all she would have had to have done is wait a couple of months, and go off to university.  She had a full ride academic scholarship, for Christ's sake.  She'd never have to see her family again if she didn't want to.  There is absolutely no cogent reason for her to have run away NOW.

[martin connahey]

1. I was told not to attack the victim when I posted in several Runaway Bride chatrooms. Point being, until we know nh's fate, there is no victim per se, just a missing person.

2. Diverpam is, by her own account, personally connected with the players in this situ, thus her objectivity is nil.

3. This is a forum for discussing, airing, questioning, and speaking freely about theories. A question posted by any user is fair game, not an attack. To Diverpam and others with emotional connections to the nh family, Scared Monkeys is probably not a great place to be. But if you do choose to be here and post here, I guarantee you will see things which hurt your feelings, make you uneasy, and might even make you cry. Pleas of -Mommy Make The Mean People Stop Talking- will go unheeded.

4. Bender? Maybe, maybe not. Okay, the nitpick is that it was 5 days not 7, and nh is over 18. So the edit makes the statement, ... A five-day bender/celebratory-drunk for newly of-age revelers. It is possible that nh was drunk as a goose, or not. We just don't know. Some theories posit that she was, which are as valid as theories which assume she was sober, ( many of which conjectures, by the way, are also posted in this and other forums ).

5. Because I am posting in the United States, I will feel free, as we all should, to wonder aloud, theorize, and yes ( if a scenario I'm exploring requires it ) assume negative things about any the players, dutchboy and nh alike.

6. Diverpam's heavy-handedness has reinvigorated my desire to explore any and every theory about this case, in public, in private, and of course right here in Freedom-Of-Speech city, aka Scared Monkeys.

7. Re: item #6, Mom Twitty, in a purely public-relations sense, is her daughter's own worst enemy. She turns the public off. If this case drags out much further ( time-wise, several months or more ), a complete national amnesia w/r/t this case will be, in no small part, due to her. If I were Mom Twitty, I'd go into hiding and let other cooler heads do the PR stuff.

[Cerulean]

Martin C.

In your need to assert your "right" to speculate on this, you have lost your awareness of other people's feelings.

To attack Natalee's mother is beyond the pale.  She is strong, and I admire her.  Whenever women seem assertive or emotional, even for the most unassailable of reasons, there seem to be people who attack them.  Women have every right to be insistent, assertive, angry, emotional, expressive, active, powerful or anything else they need to be.  Get used to it.  This is the 21st century.

[WonderWoman]

To believe that Natalee ran away flies in the face of the facts and logic.  If she ran away, she did so without her passport, her clothes, and any means of support.  Where could she go?  What is she wearing?  How is she supporting herself?  It doesn't make any sense.  Moreover, if Natalee wanted to get away from her family, all she would have had to have done is wait a couple of months, and go off to university.  She had a full ride academic scholarship, for Christ's sake.  She'd never have to see her family again if she didn't want to.  There is absolutely no cogent reason for her to have run away NOW.

Wasn't she going to attend Uof Alabama...real far away!!!  LOL