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Author Topic: RBN #26 NightCrew Sat/Sun  (Read 224923 times)
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GuyWdog
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« Reply #160 on: June 26, 2005, 12:04:17 AM »

Quote
arrabba gave this list with percentages......

Run-a-way Tourist - 0%
kidnapping - 90%
Murder(many scenarios) - 40%
Drugged then Murdered - 35%
Drugged then sucumbed with no one else involved - 10%
Accidental death no one else involved(drowning) - 0%
Accidental Death Joran involved -75%
Human Trafficing - 0%
Drugged, kidnapped, raped, accidenatl death, just Joran - 95%


 I would like to add a few more scenarios of my own--

Run-A-Way Tourist -5%-(my Prayers are for this one)
Kidnapping-10%
Murder-10%-(Drugged sexually assaulted death)
Drugged then succumbed-10%-(perscription drug interaction with alcohol)
Drugged then Murdered-2%
Accidential Death no one involved-25%-(drowned after she left Joran)
Accidential Death Joran involved-36%-(She resisted advances then accident)
Human Trafficing-2%-


This is just my opinion. No facts support these theories. What are your Scenarios and percentages?


GuyWdog
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Scott
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« Reply #161 on: June 26, 2005, 12:04:28 AM »

Quote from: "Compananzi"

Any ideas why if the whole family know that JVDS was the prime suspect that a lame poster was sent out and the first tv appearance was in the similar vane? (confirmed info) I need a good explanation so I can rest it aside..

http://www.geocities.com/dutch_on_aruba/nhposteraruba.jpg.


What if they were of the belief that Joran was responsible for turning her over to a drug dealer/kidnapper/pimp in exchange for money?
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DT
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« Reply #162 on: June 26, 2005, 12:04:44 AM »

Quote from: "Compananzi"
Quote from: "DT"
Quote from: "coco"
Compananzi - I'm not sure I follow your post but I do feel queazy about the speed of response from the Natalee's parents and the level of it. I could imagine Beth and Jug flying in to "wait for Natalee" and ask questions and push the police to investigate but there's something about Jug and 5 buddies (I think that's what he said the other night) and the FBI and the DEA all descending that fast - coupled with the complete shutdown of any negative info or even informational info from MB students that sits in the back of my mind nagging. Not even speculating here, just recording uneasiness on this score.



Some of you guys are really grasping at straws here.

Of course her parents are going to fly down their the first chance they get.  They know their daughter and if they feel that she is not the type of person to be late or irresponsible then they are going to go and try and find her as soon as they can when they find out she is missing.

Too my knowledge their hasnt been a shutdown of any negative info, only that their isn't really any to report.  By all accounts she seems to be a fairly good person.  Sticking up for your daughter/friend and saying that she is a good person is hardly a shutdown of any negative info.  ANd actually a lot of the MB students have given info.  From the interviews on Fox to interviews they have done with local papers.  Hardly a shutdown on information.  

The DEA agent was already in the island for an unrelated reason and was in the best position to help the family that is why he was involved.  

As to the FBI who knows?  Maybe the family has connections.


Any ideas why if the whole family know that JVDS was the prime suspect that a lame poster was sent out and the first tv appearance was in the similar vane? (confirmed info) I need a good explanation so I can rest it aside..

http://www.geocities.com/dutch_on_aruba/nhposteraruba.jpg.


Who knows?  I don't see what it has to do with my post though. Maybe they thought it would appeal to peoples emotions to show the closeness she and her mother had?  I don't know if that poster has been confirmed by the way.
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CancunMole
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« Reply #163 on: June 26, 2005, 12:05:11 AM »

Quote from: "sb"
arubagirl, I think they went directly to the VDS house because the evidence they had was that Joran was the guy Natalee had met before. There was...and IS... NO evidence, not ONE SHRED, that Natalee had seen or met the Kalpoes before and for all we know, she thought they were taxi drivers.


Yes, they went there based on what they had been told by "the quiet people". How convenient. No problem, no questions. Even Law & Order looks close to home. If the Ed kid could get friendly with a waiter/bar tender at C&C, whatever, don't you think someone else could also make connections?
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Another K in Texas
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« Reply #164 on: June 26, 2005, 12:05:11 AM »

Not in person--she was leaving to go to Aruba, they were on a plane to the US.

She easily could have talked to them on the phone.
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writenow
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« Reply #165 on: June 26, 2005, 12:05:15 AM »

Quote from: "coco"
Compananzi - I'm not sure I follow your post but I do feel queazy about the speed of response from the Natalee's parents and the level of it. I could imagine Beth and Jug flying in to "wait for Natalee" and ask questions and push the police to investigate but there's something about Jug and 5 buddies (I think that's what he said the other night) and the FBI and the DEA all descending that fast - coupled with the complete shutdown of any negative info or even informational info from MB students that sits in the back of my mind nagging. Not even speculating here, just recording uneasiness on this score.


You know, they may have contacted the FBI in the states right away -- before they left for Aruba. The FBI could have given them tips on what to do. Plus, they could have put them in touch with other organizations who could immediately tell them what actions to take when a child is missing (Missing kids/Polly Klauss organization, etc.). These groups have it down to a tee from years of experience (unfortunately involving many kidnapped kids).
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arubagirl
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« Reply #166 on: June 26, 2005, 12:05:15 AM »

Sb, I didn't go. Too damn expensive.

The plane ride from Holland to Aruba is about 9 1/2 boring hours.

Have done it four times.
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Selena
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« Reply #167 on: June 26, 2005, 12:06:35 AM »

SB
There had to be a gigazillion people still on the island at that time,..and after the concert, can you imagine what it would be like to get into ANY nightspot? let alone to eat dinner...
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dl3fan
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« Reply #168 on: June 26, 2005, 12:09:41 AM »

I don't believe they would have called the FBI for advice before leaving because best I can remember it was Memorail Day that day.  And you that is a holiday.
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DT
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« Reply #169 on: June 26, 2005, 12:10:08 AM »

Quote from: "coco"
DT - I understand what you are saying ... I've just been going around in my head trying to figure out how I would have acted if it was my daughter and all I know is that she missed her flight and didn't show up at the hotel. I'm not sure - and I know that by the next day for example I would have been in lioness mode ... I'm just uneasy with the speed at which things went from Natalee missed her flight to confrontations at the VDS house.  

I really respect Beth for her fierceness and her speaking up for the security guards and for her civility to the aruban people which is what led me to get interested in the case and start reading her obsessively. And I'm sure Natalee is a wonderful girl. I just really don't like the tone that comes from Jug and I am uncomfortable with some of this.

I think there's something about the assumption that "I know my daughter would never do anything irresponsible so I know you kidnapped her" that makes some little piece of me go hunh? And there's something in Jug's style that reminds me of problematic dads - completely different from what I get from David Holloway who seems to shun the spotlight and focus on the search ... I don't know.

...and I am uncomfortable with the feeling that even thinking these things is somehow blaming the victim or such instead of just another avenue for speculation and self-examination. I honestly find myself thinking Ok, if I got a call that my dtr missed a flight home from Jamaica, what would be my assumptions? It makes me think about things like what do I assume about my own kids, what do I "know" with the level of certainty people ascribe to Beth, etc.

Really just trying to think this through in my own head ... and trying to be honest.


I understand that you are just trying to be reasonable, but the thing is nothing makes sense without these guys being involved somehow.  I really can not see her running away, and not because of anything the family has said about her character.  

I don't know about you but if I had a daughter and she didn't turn up for a flight home I would be on the first flight out regardless of how she had behaved previously.
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absolut
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« Reply #170 on: June 26, 2005, 12:10:10 AM »

Quote from: "sb"
Quote from: "Selena"
THe first reports said she went to the BOYZIIMEN concert, and then out to eat at CnC's. I'm not sure of the timeline.


Selena, that beach concert thing troubles me too. The stories of the 3 guys and the stories of Natalee's closest friends all have her at the HI at 9:30 meeting Joran for the first time. At which time he supposedly says it's Sunday night, it's slow, nobody goes out, I have no plans etc.  Now I am NOT an expert on teen music at all but I have heard of Boyz2Men and if they were holding a concert that night, everybody and their grandmother on that island under 30 was GUARANTEED to be there where it was GOIN' ON! The word was that AFTER the MBers left the concert, they went to CC's.

I am HIGHLY sceptical of the Sunday night timeframe until Natalee et al. were at CC's. I contend that the Joran meeting was much earlier in the day and I have no earthly idea why people are saying 9:30 PM.


Because Joran was in a poker tourney that started at 8pm at 9:30ish he was done and had finished 4th. Her friends said that they met after he had played poker, at the blackjack table.
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arubagirl
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« Reply #171 on: June 26, 2005, 12:10:24 AM »

I'm sorry, but who walks around with the FBI phone number handy?
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LilOrphan
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« Reply #172 on: June 26, 2005, 12:10:52 AM »

Quote from: "arubagirl"
Lil, I haven't heard anything of the sort. Not to say that's not true.


Thanks for the answer. The source types in metaphor and riddle, but he's usually accurate and Fox reports it, oh, five hours later. Smile
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friend of monkeys
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« Reply #173 on: June 26, 2005, 12:11:18 AM »

Quote from: "arubagirl"
Sb, I didn't go. Too damn expensive.

The plane ride from Holland to Aruba is about 9 1/2 boring hours.

Have done it four times.


r u listening o dag???  
WTF?
"last dance" by donna summers??
all of a sudden stop/schreeechheeesses to halt/commrcial??


followed by song "GASOLINA"
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peace to all
boxopen
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« Reply #174 on: June 26, 2005, 12:11:24 AM »

Quote from: "friend of monkeys"
u must know TTown Mike...
LOL... I already "knew" him. Mad
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arubagirl
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« Reply #175 on: June 26, 2005, 12:11:30 AM »

Well, Lil, then I would *definitely* believe the guy.
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DT
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« Reply #176 on: June 26, 2005, 12:12:01 AM »

Quote from: "arubagirl"
I'm sorry, but who walks around with the FBI phone number handy?


Im pretty sure it would be in the phone book. Plus if they had connections ( a senator for instance) he would have no problem getting the FBI involved.
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Blue
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« Reply #177 on: June 26, 2005, 12:12:19 AM »

arubagirl wrote:
If Jug said that, and AvdS is going to be detained, then I guess we know who's running the show.

AvdS wasn't on the island, so she couldn't see/hear anything. And anything that JvdS told her she doesn't have to reveal, so basically, there is no point.


Maybe the Twittys think that AvdS could possibly have found something while cleaning. I think I remember BHT saying something about Natalee being at the Van Der Sloots house at 3:00 AM the night she went missing.
Does anyone else remember that?

Sorry I messed up the earlier try - It's my first post. Sad
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arubagirl
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« Reply #178 on: June 26, 2005, 12:12:43 AM »

DT, huh, in the phone book? The one they have in Aruba? Not following.
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bobntexas
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« Reply #179 on: June 26, 2005, 12:12:46 AM »

Quote from: "arubagirl"
I'm sorry, but who walks around with the FBI phone number handy?



http://www.fbi.gov/contactus.htm
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