RBN #28 6/26/05 Sunday Evening

[K in TX]

I`m sorry to say this but...............Are there not a lot of people in the US having a Psychatrist ( sorry for my spelling   )? I thought that was more common in the US then in what country at all?!

Yeah, we're pretty much all nuts...

just ask Tom Cruise

We should all take vitamins to cure our problems.

[Kkial]

Thanks, everyone, for your feedback on my "underground party" theory.

I copy-pasted everyone's feedback into a Word document so that I can digest it and see if I can plug the holes in my theory.

The basic holes are:

1. I need a location for this party!  As Arubagirl said, the island is small and word gets around.  However, Lorenzo is known to have underground parties in his more isolated home.  He is the Lorenzo that the police questioned about 2 weeks ago.
2. I need a true and valid reason why Joran would lie.  If others grabbed the girl away from him, he would have just been hollaring and frantic to the police.  I need a reason why, instead, he lied plus got others to back his false story.

Is there another hole, or did I capture the two basic problems?

I think that is great,,(because I agree),,I have been bothered by the Mariott....?  after parties...lots of places in a large resort to have these, and I would bet the young crowd knows about them,,  On leaving CnCs, to to Mariott,,small group,,more drugs,,possibly after ruffie at CnC, my imagination runs away as to what could have gone on at this party..There are always big dumpsters,,,other ways if there are enough people involved that are in the know...wanted to pass this along....

[arubagirl]

Yes, Dallas Also. They moored right in front of Havana Beach Club

[ExTexinAZ]

I've just made a personal promise to myself to be more aware of my surroundings.  You never know when it might come in handy.

[KackyLacky]

The released suspects seem to have upset quite a few people's theories. But to me, my ideas are still the same. I never thought that either Steve Croes or papa VDS were necessary to the situation with Joren. They were interesting to speculate more scenarios....but still not necessary to come up with scenarios that could have happened had they never have been suspects.

At this point, I still beleive there is something amiss when three boys plot together to tell a lie about their whereabouts that night. That lie even put two innocent victims in jail (the out of work guards). That original story has caused countless days to be lost, in searching the correct area. (I'm assuming that the beach story is the closest story we have to the truth thus far.) What was the purpose of this original story? If Joren and Natalee were left on the beach....why not just tell the truth to begin with?? Nope, when a person fabircates a story to cover up something....dragging innocent people into their mess (and maybe even two more innocents if the brothers turn out to be innocent), then I have to beleive something is being hidden by JVDS who was the last person to see Natalee alive.

Maybe Joren didn't murder Natalee, but something did happen that caused him to fabricate lies. I'm still sticking with the theory that Joren knows a lot more than he has told to date. I just haven't a clue as to what could be so dire as to necessitate lying and getting freinds to join in the lies? But it does make either murder, manslaughter or even an accident very suspicious under the circumstances.

Now as to why hasn't he broken yet??? His friends have....otherwise we wouldn't have the story about Joren being dropped on the beach along with Natalee while the friends drove off....and Joren walking home later. Is it the truth?? Who knows? But I doubt the brothers would have changed their stories putting Joren in the defensive if it was another lie.  Maybe Joren thinks holding out is better than chancing several years more in jail! Let's not forget that his dad was in the legal field, and I'm sure Joren's heard a lot of legal stories during his youth to refer to.

Curiosity - I think you are on to something here.  Joran and maybe Deepak and Satish are definitely guilty of something.  

Maybe they really did drop the two off at the Marriott.  However, that's where the lies begin.  Joran goes too far, NH says "no", but he doesn't stop.  After its over, she says "leave me alone" and he does - figuring that she's leaving in a couple of hours and there's no way that she'll call the cops.

Then what happens?  I see several scenarios:

1.  NH goes for a dip in the ocean to "clean off" and being slightly inebriated, drowns.  If so why no body?  Not likely.

2.  A distraught NH is abducted on her walk back to the HI.  Possible and since it may mean that she's still alive, one that I would like to believe.

3.  NH can't bear to go back to her friends and family after what has happened to her and decides to run away.  Maybe, but no money, no passport - where would she go?  Also seems out of character.

Again, just speculation on my part, but given what little we know, I think the only explanation is that the 3 in custody are guilty of something, but really don't know where she is.  Otherwise, they would have broken by now.  

Then again, why haven't they admitted what they're guilty of under intense questioning???  AAHHH, this is driving me crazy!

Also, on a final note, what does NH's character really have to do with anything (other than to establish the likelihood of #3)??  Good person, bad person, sober, drunk, high on drugs, or not, she didn't deserve whatever it is that has happened to her.  She is the victim - I think some have forgotten that.

Peace!  I'm out...

good post Indy, and I keep bouncing between all of them. I am coming to your area in a few days for a wedding!

[luna]

Anna , back on page 31 you stated this:

"His mother says he is in anger management therapy for kicking his little brothers and he threw a kid through a plate glass window, etc. starts two fights with the MB kids and on and on."

1) Where did his mother say he was in anger management....I believe that is a rumor floating around from day one.  Anita never said that that I can remember.

2)  What is your source for the statement that he threw a kid through a plate glass window?  Again, I've heard that rumor....  a guy named Tsunder over on Riehlworldview.com said it never happened.

3) Bryan Reynolds said that there was "a pushing match" at CnCs with Joran on the second night they were there.  We don't know who started it or why.  I could make a snide remark about the twins being related to Jug....and insinuate they caused it, but I simply don't know who started it.

Where is the source for the second fight please.

I think it's these kind of, probably well-meaning but probably incorrect, statements that get rumors started.

If you have sources or quotes, please let me know.

thanks...

[~TAZ_MAN~]

Maybe i missed it...but where is the apology that the 3 amigos owe natalee, natalee's family and all of Aruba for that matter? If they are innocent the main reason they are still in jail is because of their own lies. The monumental agony that these 3 have laid at the feet of the Holloway family is without excuse. every lie they tell jerks the Holloways back and forth. running to the lighthouse, draining ponds by the hotel, searching the brothels...all ending in pain and fear of not knowing. what is the next story that will taunt Nat's family and end in heatbreak? i know joren feels sorry for his mom. i know the Kalpoes apologized to the security guards. when will these 3 step up and apologize to Nat and her family for the lies?

Yea that

[Sobelle]

2. I need a true and valid reason why Joran would lie.  If others grabbed the girl away from him, he would have just been hollaring and frantic to the police.  I need a reason why, instead, he lied plus got others to back his false story.

Greta talked about this in one of her last reports. She said that she didn't think Joran having his friends cover for him made him look guilty. He may have just been scared. Or maybe he didn't want people to know that he had some relationship with Natalee. And remember , Greta is a former prosecutor.

Greta also said naturally keep your eye on the last person that saw Natalee but don't put your all your eggs in one basket either and follow all leads.

[iquitos]

Think you can spot one? Think again. In general, psychopaths aren't the product of broken homes or the casualties of a materialistic society. Rather they come from all walks of life and there is little evidence that their upbringing affects them. Elements of a psychopath's personality first become evident at a very early age, due to biological or genetic factors. Explains Michael Seto, a psychologist at the Centre for Addiction and Mental health in Toronto, by the time that a person hits their late teens, the disorder is almost certainly permanent. Although many clinicians use the terms psychopath and sociopath interchangeably, writes psychopath expert Robert Hare on his book 'Without Conscience', a sociopath's criminal behavior is shaped by social forces and is the result of a dysfunctional environment.

[Dallas Also]

A personall friend of mine was raped in Aruba over 8 years ago ...

bendex, I'm sorry to hear this about your friend.  That's grim.  Sounds like the criminal wasn't caught and convicted?

Really, there should have been DNA and other clues in that crime.

[Anna]

Here is the post yet again for those who do not understand how NH came to be in the car with Joren.

>>Hi, LUNA. As you can see, I'm Puggywug. I post this alot when there are questions about Natalee getting in the car. Here is a quote from Dash's mom who also posts here:

"My daughter spoke with Natalee right after C&C's closed. My daughter & her friends came across Nat & Joran as all were exiting the club, and all were walking more or less together toward another group of classmates...

Natalee was walking unassisted (not falling down drunk), spoke ok (though not answering in long sentences), and was not touching Joran.

Nat assured them that she was fine, and said she was going to go back to the hotel "with THEM," pointing to the MBHS group just a few yards ahead. The Kalpoes were nowhere in sight; neither was the car.

Next {woman’s daughter} heard was that Natalee got into a car that many in the group had thought was a taxi. (Those look like regular cars.) It may be that the Kalpoes pulled up on the street before Natalee reached the next group; Joran may have deliberately stalled her. The group may not have even realized she was behind them, approaching.

But while we hear that she got in the car willingly, we know from her comments that it was not her pre-planned intention. Because of this, I do not believe she knew she would be going anywhere but a fairly short distance down to the hotel. Her plans changed in the blink of an eye, and she was gone . . .“
 
http://www.scaredmonkeys.com/Discussion/viewtopic.php?t=303&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=400<<

On the Dark Side is an article that describes a practice called "carving out" that is used to separate vulnerable targets from their group whereby the men involved surround the female and just sort of jostle her to an awaiting car.  An article is written about how this was used on a member of a group until the males of the group drove those attempting the maneuver away.

The other kids thought it was a taxi so who's to say NH did not also think that but she said she intended to go with the group to the HI and said nothing about going with Joren while leaving C&C's.  We cannot know what was in her mind nor what her intentions might have been but we do know what she had just said.

So for those in love with the theory of a pretty girl being just so hot to trot for Joren, while you might really enjoy this scenario it is not likely what happened at all.  And please keep in mine the socio=economic status of these kids.  It's not like this was their one and only vacation ever and they had to make the most of it, it was just a graduation trip, hardly anything to get hysterical about.  They come from their own little paradise and have advantages most do not.

[inspector_detector]

Maybe i missed it...but where is the apology that the 3 amigos owe natalee, natalee's family and all of Aruba for that matter? If they are innocent the main reason they are still in jail is because of their own lies. The monumental agony that these 3 have laid at the feet of the Holloway family is without excuse. every lie they tell jerks the Holloways back and forth. running to the lighthouse, draining ponds by the hotel, searching the brothels...all ending in pain and fear of not knowing. what is the next story that will taunt Nat's family and end in heatbreak? i know joren feels sorry for his mom. i know the Kalpoes apologized to the security guards. when will these 3 step up and apologize to Nat and her family for the lies?

Look at it from their point of view. The way they see it Natalee has gotten them all in trouble. They seem to think that Natalee has caused all of this on purpose and just ran away or something. I'm not sure they comprehended at the time that Natalee could really have been kidnapped or murdered. Just my theory.

[GreatOwl]

 



And that's a fact, Jack.

I will say again, if Joran has ever had a history of hurting animals would be interesting to me.

maybe he put the monkey in the cage next door!!!!!!

sorry the devil made me say that.... sorry.

 

[Microcephalic]

The suppsed Deepak e-mail may contain a cover story, that being that the three boys dropped Natalee off at the HI, but it is just too close to the truth not to be taken seriously. It has been cooberated by several students on the trip, second hand accounts as relayed by Deepak’s and Joran’s mother and other facts. If it was not written by Deepak, it was written by someone with detailed knowledge of what happened that night.

I believe the account given in the e-mail, with exception of the dropping NH off at the HI is more or less accurate. NH met Joran at the blackjack table at the HI Casino the evening that she disappeared. She approached him and asked her to place some bets for her. She more or less invited him to go to C&C’s later that evening. On these events the interview with 2 students, who were in the Casino at the time, and description given in the e-mail are identical.

We then have Joran at McD’s calling for a ride home. Much has been said about this. How did he get there? Why did he go there? I don’t think it really matters. His cell phone would not work in the Casino so he probably walked over and had a Big Mac while he waiting for his father to pick him up. In any case, Joran returns home and makes arrangements with the Kalpoe boys to go to C&C’s. Much has also been said regarding this. These boys must be evil and up to no good to sneak out on a school night and go to a bar, right? I don’t think anything more is required than Joran just met a cute American girl who apparently came on to him or at least invited him to go to C&C’s, he liked her and he wanted to go.

So Joran, Deepak and Satish head over to C&C’s in DEEPAK’s car. This is important given that Joran’s families cars wer later seized but no mention of Deepak’s car being seized. Perhaps I missed that. In any case, Natalee is already there, appearing to be somewhat under the influence, having a good time, but not appearing to be on some harder drug(s). It is already close to closing by the time the boys get there so they quickly order a round of drinks before last call. This makes the date rape drug theory even more unlikely. The bar closes and the students head back to the hotel. Natalee, who is described as coherent by other students, leaves voluntarily with the boys. She is seen by other students who apparently call for her to get out of the car, a fact confirmed by the e-mail and student accounts and Deepak gives her that opportunity.

So we have the four of them cruising in Deepak’s car. The boy’s stories and the e-mail suggest that they drove to the lighthouse. I don’t think it is important whether they did or did not. If a sinister plan had been hatched by the boys at this point then it is unlikely that the Kalpoe’s would have dropped Natalee and Joran off anywhere alone. They would obviously have stayed with him. And yet they did not. Why would Joran be calling and text messaging Deepak and hour or so later for a ride home if they had not dropped him off somewhere earlier? If they were involved with some sort of plot it seems likely that they would have stayed with Joran and done whatever they planned to do. The fact that they did drop them off suggests to me that their involvement in this is limited to the fact that they attempted to help Joran hide something. That is why they are in jail. This has been confirmed by Marianne Croes who has stated yesterday that they are being held because their “stories did not check out”. In fact she made the same statement regarding all of the suspects.

So Joran and Natalee are dropped off at the beach. The Marriot beach seems likely. It is close to the HI and is private. What happens now is anyone’s guess however it is clear that the Kalpoes are not involved. By the way, the security guard, who did not lie and had no reason to lie and is now free as a result also confirms these events having heard one of the Kalpoes stating that he never should have dropped Natalee off alone with Joran.

There are many theories regarding what happened on the beach and only one person that can possibly shed any light on that, perhaps two if Natalee is still alive, or more if others were involved. In any case I believe that Joran had no premeditated plan to do anything at that point other than to perhaps have sex with this girl. It is possible that he murdered her but I think this is unlikely. It does not seem like he would have to resort to rape to make love to women. He is a young, some, apparently including Natalee, would say he is attractive, any lives in a place where thousands of young girls come through every week. Rape or attempted rape and fear of prosecution thereof would be the only motive that I can envision but I just don’t see it. It would have been her word against his and she went with him voluntarily.

Some kind of accident is more likely. If this is the case then Joran has made the mistake of his life as he should have, called for help, reported it and told the truth. And why wouldn’t he? Because he had sex with her? No likely. He could have just said it was consensual and if he did perhaps it was. If she had died there would have been no one to dispute him. Because he drugged her? Also not likely. He does not seem to have had the opportunity to do this or at least very little opportunity. If there was an accident he covered it up he did it because he was stupid.

Perhaps Joran’s only crime is that he is a complete asshole and left a drunk passed out girl on the beach and then lied about it. And parties unkonwn are responsible for her disappearance. Steve Croes? His connection to this case is totally unknown. It is anyone’s guess without facts. And facts are clearly not readily available to us or to the police. Agaian, Marianne Croes has stated that all 5 suspects are being held because their stories didn’t check out. Not because we have clear evidence to suspect them of the crime. This is unfortunate. Joran may or may not hold the key. Without a body or any clear evidence that a crime has been commited I would not be surprised to see any or all of these people released this morning except for the pressure being placed on the police to solve this disappearance and place the blame on someone. I hope she is found, dead or alive. It is a big Island with lots of dessert and coastline. Not very difficult for someone to dispose of a body. The search and recovery people have their work cut out for them.

Continuing on in light of today’s developments…I have been corrected regarding Deepak’s car.  It was seized by the police.  Regarding the release of Steve Croes there are conflicting stories.  Either he was arrested because he made false statements to police in an attempt to give Joran, who he did not know, an alibi or he was arrested simply because he was involved in exchanging e-mails with Deepak.  Doesn’t the Dutch system have our equivalent to obstruction of justice?  If the former were true it seems like he would be held over and charged.  He certainly would be in our system.  Instead he was released due to lack of evidence.  I surmise that he never made false statements and is out of the picture.

Similarly, Paulus Vander Sloot was released due to lack of evidence.  Not only did the Judge determine that there was no evidence but ordered that his arrest was unlawful.  I conclude that there is nothing there.  No late night body disposal, no lying to police, no coordinating stories among the three boys still held and no slave trading to pay off gambling debts.

This leaves Joran alone on the beach with Natalee and no closer to a resolution.  I would say however, with no Steve Croes or Paulus Vander Sloot disposal service, if you buy into my theory,  it is becoming increasingly difficult for Joran to have concealed some crime and disposed of a body.  He is on the beach with no car and no way to dispose of a body.  We have phone calls and text messages to Deepak at the time so we know he wasn’t there.  Perhaps Joran and Natalee arrived at the beach.  Joran wanted sex and Natalee wouldn’t give it to him.  She got angry and told him to leave.  Joran walks home, after failing to get a ride from Deepak, and Natallee heads down the beach toward the hotel.  If any of this is true the local police better get busy looking for a third party or this case is going nowhere.  JMHO

[rogers]

Good night gang. Hope you have this all worked out by morning time.

[Dallas Also]

I asked this before, but it may have gotten lost in our frenzied posting...any news from TX search group?  Last update I had was from early this morning.

Dan posted an update on his website, riehlworldview.com, at 4:30 pm EDT and indicated that nothing of significance had been found as of that time.

[wwizard]

what wuz that? did ya'll hear sumthin? eye'm gittin paranoid.

GIVE ME THAT NEW THEORY, WIZ!!!  

it ain't very flattering, don't want to git flamed, will PM

[~TAZ_MAN~]

I really dont buy into any theory of an outside party unless Natalies friends in the Casino that night had heard them talking about it.  The way kids are they will talk and brag about a party going on to everyone within shouting distance.  A party would have been something that was known.
Kids dont keep that kind of stuff quiet.

[pinemeadows]

I LIKE this theory.  Arubagirl, could this occur?  Were there yachts in town for the Soul Festival?

Now you might be on to something...but there has to be something sinister or powerful enough to warrant D & S just sitting in prison for Joran.

The other scenario could be that the 3 amigos just turned her over to someone on the yacht.

This would explain the sudden loss of memory they all have - didn't know where they were, where they'd been, or where they had dropped of N & J.

[pinemeadows]

Kids dont keep that kind of stuff quiet.

Unless they all knew about it, and Natalee didn't.