Time for new theories?

[Karl]

I got this from political teen:

"We have learned that Croes was honest from the beginning and that he got tangled into this case because he exchanged emails with one of the Kalpoe brothers the night Natalee went missing. The email most likely had nothing to do with Holloway and was just a friendly chat. Croes actually went to the police in an attempt to vindicate Joran by telling them he saw the boys drop her off at the hotel. However the police later took him into custody for questioning, because Joran changes his story turning on Croes."

If he was honest from the beginning he seems to back up the story of the three suspects that are still being held.  In other words these guys DID NOT DO IT.   What else could have happened?  

If someone on the trip killed her, I doubt they would be able to hide the body in an unfamilliar area.

This leaves the possibility that another local was involved, or that she ran away.  I am sure thier are other possibilities but the current suspects are looking more and more innocent.

[MominTN]

They do not look innocent to me at all.  The police are poor investigators and they may get off, but we know they are guilty.
Why would Croes go to a police station and TELL THE SAME LIE about SEEING the other three drop off Natalee at the Holiday Inn if he were innocent?

[Karl]

Maybe the reason that their stories match is that they are telling the truth.

The Aruban authorities have done everything they can, they arrested the boys father to put pressure on the boy.  The police are definetely trying everything they can to get these guys to talk.  Maybe the reason they are not talking is that they do not know anything.

Again maybe it is time for a new theory.

[Michael22]

ok new theory
she didn't want to go home
she's 18
and independent
her mom would never let her go
and 'live' in aruba
and she can't really say she's living there
cause (I think) you have to pay the government
to move there.
so she has help from locals
knows she's gonna hurt her mom
but she's 18 and independent
so she believes she can start a life
and what better place to do it
in paradise
alas
sooner or later
the gigs up cause of all the media attention
theres no way that she can lay low her entire life
and now she's scared cause of what happened
with the runaway bride case
what to do what to do...

[wbvious]

karl

the reason that their stories match is that they are telling the truth.

where did you get this?
the only reason that their stories matched initially was because they calibrated them...
then their stories didn't match...
now they do again only because joran knows he's slowly sliding downhill into a sea of self-incrimination and he realizes that no one will believe him if he continues to refute the other's statements...my guess is it's gonna get real ugly when this finally goes to trial and joran and dad trade last minute accusations...w/ dad re-incriminating himself as well...

[MominTN]

They do not look innocent to me at all.  The police are poor investigators and they may get off, but we know they are guilty.
Why would Croes go to a police station and TELL THE SAME LIE about SEEING the other three drop off Natalee at the Holiday Inn if he were innocent?

Try to answer my question please.

[Karl]

Authorities are saying that Croes has been completely truthful.  One of his statements is that he saw them drop her off.  If he was completely truthful then this is a true statement.  If they thought he was lieing I doubt they would be releasing him.  

I doubt the dad is going to be testifying against his kid.  Most people are now saying that he was arrested to put pressure on Joran, which did not seem to work.

The lengths that the Aruban police force have gone to, to make a case against the three freinds is pretty extreme.  In the US none of these people would even be in jail.  So the claim that the police are innefectual seems a bit weak.

As for the "runaway" theory I thnk it has some merit although I would argue that she has probably already slipped back into the US as it is not hard to get from Aruba to the US, you don't need a passport, a US birth certificate is sufficient.  If you were a teenager wanting to get away it would be easy to start a new life in another city.  Does anyone know how much money she had with her?

[MominTN]

It has already been proven that they didn't drop her off at the HI.  They did not see her talking to guards.  There is no record on videotape at all of this happening.  
If this were true, then why would the other three change their stories?
Croes lied and is being released anyway.

Natalee had no reason to get away.  She had a scholarship and was happy to be going to U of A, according to her friends.  You are barking up the wrong tree.  And one might ask why.

Is there a way on this site to ignore someone's posts?  If not, there should be.

[Karl]

This is from a collumn on MSNBC where he summarizes many of the arguments.

Momintn:  I am sorry if my posts bother you, I am truly just curious as to what happened and trying to think of alternatives.

1) Theory:  She simply ran away, escaping to start life anew on another island for some unknown reason.

Response:  At age 17, she has no history of any such prior behavior, and did not have the means, i.e., money, identification, etc., to facilitate her dropping out of sight and life of her own volition.

2) Theory:  She was either kidnapped or sold by persons unknown as a white slave, perhaps being spirited off to another island or nation where someone of her age, sex, race and looks would bring a high price.  

Response:  Although as I wrote in another article in a Profiler's Perspective (Who's taken our Daughter?) that tens of thousands of international women and children are, in fact, the victim of kidnapping or are otherwise tricked or sold into slavery on a yearly basis, the likelihood that white slavers would risk their network and livelihood by kidnapping such a high profile victim is very slim, and there is no evidence to date that she could have befallen such a fate.

3) Theory:  She was kidnapped by a local resident who found her on the beach, and she is now being held at an unknown location on Aruba.

Response:  Possible, but somewhat unlikely as Holloway's missing status is so well known on the island, as well as the reward for her return, that such should have led to her recovery by now.

4) Theory:  She drown while swimming after being abandoned by Joran on the beach near her hotel, perhaps while intoxicated or under the influence of drugs, ingested intentionally or unintentionally.  

Response:  No item of her clothing has been found on the beach, nor is there any other known evidence to support such an accidental incident.

5) Theory:  She was murdered by someone who found her on the beach alone after Joran left her alone and vulnerable in the middle of the night.  

Response: This is impossible to discount, however there are no witnesses or other evidence to support this theory at this time.

6) Theory:  She was drugged by one of the three young men whom she accompanied that night and expired due to an overdose.  They panicked and disposed of her body as they did not want to be blamed for her having OD'd.  

Response:  Possible, however we'll need a confession and probably an autopsy to support this theory.

7) Theory:  She was assaulted by all three primary suspects and then murdered her to prevent her from reporting the assault.  The two Kalpoe brothers and Joran, with or without the assistance of Steve Croes, then disposed of her body, probably at sea.  

Response:  It would appear that either the two Kalpoe brothers or Joran would by now have rolled over and implicated the other in Holloway's disappearance and possibly murder, but if they stick to their stories it may be very hard to solve this case.  

Theory:  As Joran's current story goes, perhaps the Kalpoe brothers did drop Natalee and him off at some beach location (he was, after all, the one in the back seat of the car with her) and while they were alone he assaulted and then murdered her, afterwards calling the Kalpoe brothers to help him dispose of her body and they, in turn, perhaps sought the assistance of Croes, knowing that he had access to a small boat.  

Response: Were this to be the case, they would probably have wrapped her body in some kind of cover, perhaps a tarp, weighed her body down with some metal weights, and then took her out in the surrounding dark night waters, dropping her into the ocean in a deep location where they believed her body would never be found or recovered.  But what about Paulus van der Sloot?  Well he may have aided his son, perhaps by providing him with legal advice (e.g., don't talk and they can never prove you did anything), or he may have picked up Joran after Natalee's disappearance/murder and failed to tell the authorities about where and when this occurred, and/or he may have withheld his suspicions or knowledge concerning his son's possible involvement in her disappearance.

[Eclipse]

I really have trouble buying the runaway theory but it is possible, I think that accidental death and conspiracy (cant spell) look likely, I think she was either sedated or very intoxicated on the beach, maybe he tried to force himself on her, she fell hit her head on the rock, or maybe she passed out and was pull out by the tide? Its is amazing how often kids will dump a friends body on the side of the road as they panic when the friend dies or whatever. Their is defintely a nervousness about the dad. Can we get a polygraph or something over there?

[Racheal]

The parents had recentely purchased kidnap insurance, seems a little to timely if you ask me.

This seems like an insurance scam that has gotten out of controll.   No one carries large policies on children unless they are up to something.

[angie011675]

Racheal, where did you get this information?

[angie011675]

Racheal, where did you get this information?

[Karl]

I have heard that they reccomend kidnap insurance if you are going to Columbia and other places, so you can see why someone would get it for their kid; i think it is more a guarantee to pay the ransom than a benefit for the holder.

Riel world had a link to a web site that was seeking donations for the twitty family, that seems sort of strange, I thought they were wealthy.  The family does seem to be on the way to becoming grief capitalists.

[Transient Healer]

If this is an insurance scam, the run away bride's thunder will definitely be stolen.  I can't see how they could do that.  That would be soooo evil!!  I'm sure that is not the case, I feel it was a sex crime gone bad.

[Karl]

I saw that you were asking about polygraph tests.  On riehl world he said that the three suspects passed all questions accept for where they left her.  What do you make of that?  I would assume they would ask, do you know where she is now?  Did you harm her? stuff like that.  Why would they lie about where they left her if they did not harm her.

I wonder if they left her in a bad area or something like that.

[angie011675]

The only mention of polygraphs that I have heard has been the discussion as to why they wouldn't subject the boys to one and it was due to the fact that they are insubmissable in Aruba.

To address the question of their wealth...they are from Mt. Brook, a wealthier section of Birmingham.  Does that mean they have the means by which to stay in Aruba for more than a month?  I don't know.  I can see fund raisers for the purpose of helping them pay for their stay there and any expenses they incurr during the search for their daughter, although I would think the island probably has offered accomodations.  I don't think that they would use this situation for their personal gain.

[Karl]

Here is the post I was referring to it is from reihlworldview under Aruba update 2

"  I have also been told that, as clearly hinted at in a previous post here, the boys have been given lie detector tests and said to have passed all questions except for the critical question of when they either were with, or saw Natalee last. This is now the second source who has conveyed information regarding a lie detector being used in the investigation."