Theories, odds, and adding it up

[carlo]

I’ve been thinking about this case a lot.  How does a girl just disappear without a trace in a low-violence resort area like Aruba?  Before I lay out my theories, let me be clear that I don’t know Natalee or any of the other people involved in this case, I’ve never been to Aruba, and I really have no motivation other than personal curiousity.

Option #1:  Natalee is alive and well.  She left on her own (or with help) and is in hiding.  Odds:  0.05%

Option #2:  Natalee was kidnapped for ransom.  Joran may have been a participant.  Something went wrong and her kidnappers killed her.  Odds:  2%

Option #3:  Joran strangled her on the beach and dumped her body in the water.  Odds:  2%

Option #4:  Joran and Natalee went swimming.  Natalee drowned during late night horseplay in the ocean.  Joran left her in the water.  Odds: 15%

Option #5:  Natalee went swimming while intoxicated and/or drugged and simply drowned.  Joran may or may not have known for sure that she drowned.  If he didn’t know for sure that she drowned, he may have suspected that she did.  Odds:  50%

Option #6:  Natalee committed suicide, or sort-of suicide, by becoming intoxicated and swimming pretty far out into the ocean, then drowning.  Joran might have been on the beach when she swam out.  That might have left him uncertain as to whether she was alive or dead.  Odds: 25%

Option #7:  Other violent death.  Odds:  5.95%

Death at the beach:  I think if she left the beach by any other mode other than washing out to sea, something would have turned up (witnesses, evidence in cars, dog scents, etc.).

Suicide:  Of all the participants in this drama, Natalee was the one who was acting strangely.  She took a risky ride late at night with relative strangers.  She was making out with a relative stranger.  Perhaps her unusual actions indicate that she was following a plan that mooted the risks.  Perhaps she had been planning her suicide for the last day of her trip, and used the three local boys for transportation and perhaps some form of farewell ceremony.  On the other hand, suicide just following graduation doesn’t seem to make much sense, unless there was a compelling reason to avoid going home.  It would make more sense if there were something that she didn’t want to return home to (e.g., incest, issues with her sexuality, etc.).

Joran:  There’s really no indication that Joran and his buddies were up to no good.  How often do we hear of high-schoolers from good families picking up young women and murdering them?  Especially in Aruba?  Especially Europeans?  There’s no indication that he carried any kind of weapon.  There’s no indication he had more than a passing acquaintance with Natalee.  There’s no indication that he was a cruel kid (killing animals, etc.) or had a history of violence.  There’s no indication that he was on steroids or drugs.  It just doesn’t add up that he would murder Natalee under these circumstances.  I think it takes a fair amount of effort to kill someone.  I don’t think he had the motivation to do that.

Kidnapping:  The Mountain Brook kids were pretty wealthy and were probably spreading money around.  Perhaps this looked like an opportunity to get a good ransom.  On the other hand, I think if Joran and his friends were involved, there would have been some evidence of connections with bad folks on the island.

Other Violence:  I don’t think Aruba is loaded with weapons.  I’ve never been there, but I was in the Netherlands once.  I felt perfectly safe in Rotterdam walking around at 2:30 am.  Violent death in Europe seems very rare (at least compared with the US).  I don’t think Joran knew Natalee well enough to be bent on killing her.  I think if he was overwhelmingly prone to violence, he’d have a history of significant violence.  I don’t think he was carrying a weapon.

Uncertainty:  I think Joran left the beach alone.  I don’t think that he killed Natalee by force (e.g. strangling).  If he had killed her intentionally, I think there would be more indicators (evidence and violent history).  I don’t think he would have left Natalee sitting on the beach by herself in the middle of the night – that would be very strange as well.  If he knew for certain that she had drowned accidentally, I think he would have called the paramedics or the cops.  In that case, he’d have no personal guilt to hide.  The only thing that really seems to add up is that he left the beach not knowing for sure that she had drowned, but probably guessing that drowning was a possibility.  If he was uncertain as to her demise when he left her, then found out the next day that she was missing, that would leave him holding a medium-sized bag of guilt.  Enough to make up a lame excuse about dropping her off at her hotel, but not enough to really try to cover his tracks very well.  He seems relatively normal.  I don’t get the sense that he takes her death (/disappearance) very personally.  I’m guessing that she went swimming and left him on the beach.  Then she didn’t come back.  After a while, (again, I’m guessing) Joran gave up and walked home, figuring either than she swam away on purpose (up or down the beach) or drowned.  He goes on as normal through the next day, until it turns out that she’s really gone, and the world is up in arms.  That leaves him as just a sort-of participant in the whole thing, but everybody’s asking what he did with her.  It kind of puts him in a pinch, so he just says he left her at the beach and clams up.

These are just my observations and assessments.  Again, I’ve got no stake in this whatsoever, and I’m not trying to put down anybody else’s opinions.  I’m deeply curious about the whole thing.  I’m not trying to put down Natalee or her family in any way.  I wish them all the best in this traumatic situation.  I’m mostly just writing this down to clarify my own thinking.  As with everyone, I hope she’s alive and this turns out with some kind of non-tragic ending.

[oyster]

I don't consider her actions strange at all. She's 18, in a place where everything has thus far been an idyllic party, and she's drunk. When I was that age, I did much stupider things, and would often party all night with people I'd just met. It's not uncommon a kid, once they've lost their inhibitions, to hop into the car of someone they don't know well -- especially if they've "hooked up" with that person. Teenage romances can come and go in a matter of days. Trust comes easy in that world. Don't you remember?

As for drowning while swimming, wouldn't the body have been eventually carried back to shore by the surf?

[free_monkey]

Does not make sense at all. I am a sailor and familiar with coral reefs in the Caribbean island. The stream there would take the body back to the shore.

This Joran is the son of a prosecutor and yet would ignore that he needs to call for help in this case ????? This island, like many others in the Caribbean, is a center of rhum drinking and drug trafficking, rape-drug, ecstasy, crack and all. Dutch legislation is extremely tolerant with that. Read CIA reports on the Net. The combination of drug and alcohol and sexual violence, that's the probable cause. Seing Joran and his father, a prosecutor that is about t become a judge, gambling at Casinos, and with the violent history of that guy, well it looks pretty much that him, his 2 friends and the disc-jockey are not getting scrambled inside their own lies for nothing. These guys are dealing drugs under the cover of their activities that put them in contact with a lot of tourists.This is a kind of abduction under the influence of alcohol and narcotics, but nobody wants to reveal what this island is all about, because it makes its living out of these. At the expense of the lives and healthes of the youth of America. Thank you Aruba ! It's all about covering the dirty activities of a handful of gangsters that are ruling on that island ! Aruba,  go to hell !

[carlo]

I'd be very interested to know about the currents at the particular beach at the particular tide phase.  I think on May 30 at 2:30 am it was about 2 hours before high tide.  It would be pretty easy to float a 3/4 full milk jug about 100 yards from shore at 2 hours before high tide at the Marriott beach and see what direction it goes.  Is there anyone in Aruba that would be willing to give it a try (or several tries)?

--carlo

[phl]

I don't consider her actions strange at all. She's 18, in a place where everything has thus far been an idyllic party, and she's drunk. When I was that age, I did much stupider things, and would often party all night with people I'd just met. It's not uncommon a kid, once they've lost their inhibitions, to hop into the car of someone they don't know well -- especially if they've "hooked up" with that person. Teenage romances can come and go in a matter of days. Trust comes easy in that world. Don't you remember?

As for drowning while swimming, wouldn't the body have been eventually carried back to shore by the surf?

See, now I was 18 not THAT long ago, and my friends and I have discussed these actions repeatedly lately. We NEVER acted like this. We never let each other go off alone. We remembered awkward situations of sitting in the front seat while I friend was in the back seat...., sitting in hotels "waiting". Yea, we partied, had a good time, had summertime romances, but NOT with strangers, and never alone.

This behavior seems odd to me. I can only hope other young girls learn from this mistake. YOU are responsible for YOU...noone else!

[MominTN]

About Joran's past,  I've read that he didn't have a violent past and then in other posts I read that he did.  So which is it?
I would think by now if he were a sweet lover boy or an abuser previous companions would step forward.  Even those women who rejected his advances would talk about how he behaved afterwards.  I'm sure there are other Americans who met him and now are back in the USA thereby having no risk or gain in telling their experience.
Maybe the media is omitting his past in order to not jeopardize the case.
Without fully understanding his past, it is hard to figure out what he might have done.  But I think most people agree that he knows what happened to Natalee and isn't telling the truth.
What is also difficult to figure out without knowing him is
Is he telling part of the truth or story or is he going down a completely different and opposite path to prevent her body from being found.
Hopefully the police investigated the crematorium and the dump thoroughly a long time ago.

[safarikat]

Considering she had her ID and money on her wouldn't she remove these items before she went into the water? also wouldn't she remove her skirt? I know I wouldn't go swimming with money in my pockets!!!

[meltorme]

From a thread in T&S:

I've been diving in Aruba several times... never saw or heard about sharks.

Is there any more indepth info on the subject of shark attacks
in Aruba?
I'm seriously wondering what the statistics are. Is it a real
possibility?