Natalee Case Discussion #721 2/3- 2/4/08

[BUCKSHOT]

I did not see the video yet, but based upon synopsis information:

It seems as though it was more simple than we have over-analyzed it to be. I think the following can be safely deduced. There was a date-rape drug, of some sort, administered on Natalee, while she was in CnC. The four of them left the bar with Natalee, while the substance took its initial effects.  SK, DK, JVdS, and NH drove around the island, while the substance took full effect. Along the way, there was probably making-out going on between Natalee and Joran. Joran probably figured that he could score with the incapacitated Natalee, and requested to be dropped off by K2 at a spot, close (but not too close) to the hotel where Natalee was staying. The effects may have taken place while still in the car, but if not, had certainly began taking serious effect upon Natalee.  No, on the beach, he continued his version of romance. At some point, Natalee died of a combination of alcohol and drugs (the substance administered, while at Cnc). Joran, now panicking over being in the presence of a deceased Natalee, has to make on the spot decisions.  He probably figure that a dead tourist would not look good for him, whether or not it was an accident. Taking a dead tourist tot the hospital would not even look got for him. Wrongly, he makes the choice to disappear the body. First, he pulls her off the beach and hides her in any dark foliage that is closeby.  He walks towards hotels, texting DK.  This was probably the 8 minute call. SK, the least involved, in my opinion, probably goes home and falls asleep, as stated. DK, probably on the computer, as he indicates in PVs, sporadically splits attention between online friend from Florida and Joran. In DK's mind, he knows Natalee was not in good shape when he had last seen her. SK does not ask about her until the next day, as he, too, knows that Natalee was not in good shape when he had last seen her. Joran makes it to a pay phone and manages to call home.  Someone in the house, Paulus or Val (under instruction from Paulus) get on the computer as Joran and casually browse the internet.  Meawhile, Paulus now gets involved.  Someone with a boat, as confessed, now enters the picture.  Natalee, still hidden away in darkness or in foliage along the beach, is now drug towards the water and loaded into an awaiting boat, which pulls up close to shore.  If it did not pull up close to shore, than it pulled close enough, even if the body had to be floated out to the awaiting boat.

How much information was given to DK? DK, more than likely, has shared information with his brother, SK.  They may be in this story today because (1) they will seem as though they did not rat out a friend (seeming noble among peers and knowing that their lack of guilt would eventually set them free), (2) they may have been in on the administering of substance at CnC (whether being the dealer or actually placing it in the drink), (3) Paulus reinforcing their need to remain silent, assuring them lack of recovery of a body, and (4) publicity, with potential to monetarily gain from the situation.

Who was the boat owner? - The million dollar question.... Good guesses would be Koen, Steve Croes, Lorenzo. Paulus was probably present. Telling would be if Joran truly went to school, as it was probably encourage so as not to spoof anyone that an "out of the ordinary" event had occurred to his teachers and classmates.  Nonetheless, at school or not, her body was probably dispoded of that evening, as it is starting to to seem.  Another good question to clarify - Were the fisherman's huts truly broken into that evening for purposes of utilizing the missing items (crab trap, knife, etc..) to assist in the disposal of the deceased Natalee?

Rambling a bit, and maybe wrong, but irrelevant suspicions would include: (1) was Paulus in the casino tape, (2) did Paulus withdraw money in the middle of the night (withdrawl of monet would only prove that Paulus ventured out in the wee hours of the night and became immediately involved).

Interesting thought to consider... Joran, Paulus, and boater were speeding out into the ocean, and away from the coastline (maybe from 3AM - 530AM, just guessing), all the while prepping the body for final disposal, once destination was reached.  To make sure Joran went to chool, and after completing dumping of body, dropped back off to shore earlt in morning. Do we believe: (1) bus stop theory, Paulus drove him to school - Joran near Loenzo's home, or (2) phone call at approximately 630AM (Steve Croes) ??

What has been bogus along the way, in our collective thinking? Rock scene, concrete around pool, furniture delivery, belt discovery, Paul Brough, Posner, Sander losing his phone, columbian necktie (unless he was the boater), Pitbull (unless he was the boater), the landfill, the incinerator, lion's den, rave party, GVC, Guido, etc..

What is still unanswered, for me: (1) gardner seeing boys near racquet club, (2) next day at raquest club, and in casinos, (3) looking sweaty when posse arrived late at their house, and others that I can not think of right (feel free to add to my little list)...

Bottom line. Hard to corroborate date-rape drug, if body not discovered. Must accept accidental death theory, if body not discovered. Illegally disposing of a body would definitely be an appropriate charge, accident or not. Can it be proved, without a body, despite his taped confession. Death, can not be conclusively be declared without body. Maybe I am wrong here, but his defense will probably contend that it is more than logical to suspect dead body; however, it can not be concluded as fact unless dead body is discovered. Another appropriate charge would probably be obstruction of justice. Lies and Paulus' manipulation of influential players, within the investigation.

One thing that would change the dynamics would be Natalee's body. DNA and forensics would show substance (or lack thereof) and then the argument would definitely come into play about whether its administration caused the death (equating to manslaughter), semen - no big deal ("she was coherent when I had sex with her... she consented...then died after sex"), or injuries (likely to be explained through the disposal - "her lifeless head hit the side of the boat"). Even if her body was found, illegally disposing of a corpse and obstruction of justice of justice are the most likely to be prosecuted upon.  Joran was a minor, poor Joran, he has a good record, future ahead of him, been traumatized over the last two and a half years, please show some leniency. A few year sentence, at maximum, only has to do half the time (a day good time for every day spent in jail), subtract time already spent in jail, Joran would be out in no time...

I am just rambling...good thoughts, though, I think....

 

[cubbeegirl]

Okaydokey.  I am going to take a shot at some of the mysteries of this whole thing.

Deepak and Satish wanted to be big men about town.  Their only way to achieve this was to chauffeur Joran around town and have the appearance of being “somebody,” while Joran was using them all the time for “a ride.”  Remember he says they have a “fat Toyota” in his statement.  Short of knowing the strict translation, I am going to take that to mean, it was a “hot car.”  It looked good to the girls and the guys were in envy, a perfect ride for a “sporter” to have his “slaves” drive him into the evening with his latest conquests. 

In some sick way, K2 got a thrill from this and perhaps they were voyeurs , or not.  There is the mention of “the tape” that “the girl” would find repulsing.  I think at that point, even Deepak and Satish realize they have pushed too far.  Natalee thinks K2 are the jerks and demands they leave her and Joran along the beach.  She has seen the sharks, she has been in the car with them.  They acquiesce and leave Joran and Natalee at the beach, which is probably more than even Joran had bargained for.  He now has Natalee alone, and he can take advantage of her in anyway, shape, form or fashion.

Deepak states in his Skeeters tape that “she was beautiful, she looked like an angel,” or something to that effect.  I feel that he was pretty glommed by Natalee when she was dancing and could only dream of what it would be like to be with her, so he goes on line with his friend, Croes, and lives a fantasy as if he was in a porn chat room.  He is fantasizing at this point.

Later, he finds out what Joran has done because Joran calls him in need of help.  The long phone call.  Joran is holding while Deepak is trying to find an accomplice to get the mess straightened out, a friend with a boat.  Deepak and Satish realize at this point they need to clean the car because this is bigger than it was when they left them alone on the beach. 

Fine friend Joran is now, but it’s too late.  Deepak is the adult.  Paulus has been summoned to pay the bifrons.  His wheels are turning.  He needs to get Satish and Deepak into this so they can help Joran cover his tracks (or at least make up new tracks and new trails not covered).  Paulus has done one of these boys a legal favor, not sure which but it has something to do with a car, a “choller” and a gun.  These guys are not as street-savvy as they think they are and know little about the law, so Paulus has them “over the barrel,” those same old platitudes rushing forth about Deepak being held responsible since he was seen driving the car, the adult, the owner of the car, etc., etc. 

Deepak and Satish have been admonished to stick with the story.  Enter Steve Croes who has witnessed this.  He has told someone and it got back to D&S Kalpoe that he wants to be paid off for what he saw.  He loses his job for some reason and he is rewarded with a better job at C&C, thanks to the owner, who knows girls are being drugged there and SGC can prove it, so he is rewarded with a job to keep quiet.

Deepak and Satish are in this up to their eyeballs now, yet Deepak keeps trying to make Satish appear innocent.  They now view themselves as folk heroes on Aruba, to be celebrated for outsmarting an American woman looking for her daughter.  They make public appearances at such places at C&C, thinking that girls will be falling all over them and short of that, now they are stuck.  That did not happen.  No one is willing to run the risk of being their best friend.  Others in the community who know what really happened view them as “Joran’s butt-buddies” who are willing to “take the fall for him” because of their own stupidity and desire for 15 minutes of fame.

The recordings in the police van are the most revealing for me.

“If they find the girl, you are going to get 15 years.  “If they find the girl, they are going to see all that shit.”  “Your own father, unbelievable.”  See Father has promised K2 if they keep him and Joran out of this, they will have free rein in Aruba, to do as they please, to come and go and no harassment about those nasty little immigration rules. 

These two are still falling on their own pitards and it is too late to turn back now because they are suing Dr. Phil for their own words on that tape which has been proven to be uncut by the FBI.  What these two “fall guys” do not realize is that they sued Dr. Phil at the urging of AHATA who were tired of them and were trying to cut the umbilical cord and “doctored” a tape for the Kalpoes to use.  That is not the original tape and a few people in Aruba know that, but they gave them the doctored tape, hoping that would get them off their backs and at very least, they would be able to stay occupied by suing Dr. Phil instead of fingering bubba and poppa.

K2 allowed Paulus to build this house of cards for them.  They are trapped in it and have no way out now.  It's too late.  Skeeters would have listened and helped, Cliff Van Zant would have listened and helped.  They had faith that it was Joran alone, but K2 refused the help offered.  The cards about to fall and Dr. Phil's suit will be for naught.

Tylergal....AWSOME!!!!!

What a read....WOW.....I'll be first in line to buy your book...

Dest

Good post Tyler..... I always enjoy those posts of yours.....wish I had that skill....you always seem to sum it up so eloquently....

[windy city]

I am thinking this story has less to do about Natalee and more about protecting PVS.  Its all about the coverup. They could care less about Natalee, to them she was an accident.  Maybe Juron isn't as stupid as we think.  Maybe he knew exactly what he was doing/telling.  It would make much more sense to sacrafice Juron (or let him sacrafice himself)  knowing his punishment wouldn't amount to a hill of beans, than to let the secrets of PVS and his cronies out. The consequences of PVS being investigated would be much more embarrasing to the Island and involve so many high up people.  By telling his tales he is protecting everyone involved except himself, which doesn't seem to be his style.  Juron will get the punishment, everyone else is protected, we go away (they wish) and life goes on on the sinking island of Aruba.  JMO

I don't know if that even makes sense to anyone, its late here and I appologize.

That could be true kippy.  But I think Joran is too dumb to keep quiet.  He is his own biggest fan.  Keep talking sporter.

[Tylergal]

I did not see the video yet, but based upon synopsis information:

It seems as though it was more simple than we have over-analyzed it to be. I think the following can be safely deduced. There was a date-rape drug, of some sort, administered on Natalee, while she was in CnC. The four of them left the bar with Natalee, while the substance took its initial effects.  SK, DK, JVdS, and NH drove around the island, while the substance took full effect. Along the way, there was probably making-out going on between Natalee and Joran. Joran probably figured that he could score with the incapacitated Natalee, and requested to be dropped off by K2 at a spot, close (but not too close) to the hotel where Natalee was staying. The effects may have taken place while still in the car, but if not, had certainly began taking serious effect upon Natalee.  No, on the beach, he continued his version of romance. At some point, Natalee died of a combination of alcohol and drugs (the substance administered, while at Cnc). Joran, now panicking over being in the presence of a deceased Natalee, has to make on the spot decisions.  He probably figure that a dead tourist would not look good for him, whether or not it was an accident. Taking a dead tourist tot the hospital would not even look got for him. Wrongly, he makes the choice to disappear the body. First, he pulls her off the beach and hides her in any dark foliage that is closeby.  He walks towards hotels, texting DK.  This was probably the 8 minute call. SK, the least involved, in my opinion, probably goes home and falls asleep, as stated. DK, probably on the computer, as he indicates in PVs, sporadically splits attention between online friend from Florida and Joran. In DK's mind, he knows Natalee was not in good shape when he had last seen her. SK does not ask about her until the next day, as he, too, knows that Natalee was not in good shape when he had last seen her. Joran makes it to a pay phone and manages to call home.  Someone in the house, Paulus or Val (under instruction from Paulus) get on the computer as Joran and casually browse the internet.  Meawhile, Paulus now gets involved.  Someone with a boat, as confessed, now enters the picture.  Natalee, still hidden away in darkness or in foliage along the beach, is now drug towards the water and loaded into an awaiting boat, which pulls up close to shore.  If it did not pull up close to shore, than it pulled close enough, even if the body had to be floated out to the awaiting boat.

How much information was given to DK? DK, more than likely, has shared information with his brother, SK.  They may be in this story today because (1) they will seem as though they did not rat out a friend (seeming noble among peers and knowing that their lack of guilt would eventually set them free), (2) they may have been in on the administering of substance at CnC (whether being the dealer or actually placing it in the drink), (3) Paulus reinforcing their need to remain silent, assuring them lack of recovery of a body, and (4) publicity, with potential to monetarily gain from the situation.

Who was the boat owner? - The million dollar question.... Good guesses would be Koen, Steve Croes, Lorenzo. Paulus was probably present. Telling would be if Joran truly went to school, as it was probably encourage so as not to spoof anyone that an "out of the ordinary" event had occurred to his teachers and classmates.  Nonetheless, at school or not, her body was probably dispoded of that evening, as it is starting to to seem.  Another good question to clarify - Were the fisherman's huts truly broken into that evening for purposes of utilizing the missing items (crab trap, knife, etc..) to assist in the disposal of the deceased Natalee?

Rambling a bit, and maybe wrong, but irrelevant suspicions would include: (1) was Paulus in the casino tape, (2) did Paulus withdraw money in the middle of the night (withdrawl of monet would only prove that Paulus ventured out in the wee hours of the night and became immediately involved).

Interesting thought to consider... Joran, Paulus, and boater were speeding out into the ocean, and away from the coastline (maybe from 3AM - 530AM, just guessing), all the while prepping the body for final disposal, once destination was reached.  To make sure Joran went to chool, and after completing dumping of body, dropped back off to shore earlt in morning. Do we believe: (1) bus stop theory, Paulus drove him to school - Joran near Loenzo's home, or (2) phone call at approximately 630AM (Steve Croes) ??

What has been bogus along the way, in our collective thinking? Rock scene, concrete around pool, furniture delivery, belt discovery, Paul Brough, Posner, Sander losing his phone, columbian necktie (unless he was the boater), Pitbull (unless he was the boater), the landfill, the incinerator, lion's den, rave party, GVC, Guido, etc..

What is still unanswered, for me: (1) gardner seeing boys near racquet club, (2) next day at raquest club, and in casinos, (3) looking sweaty when posse arrived late at their house, and others that I can not think of right (feel free to add to my little list)...

Bottom line. Hard to corroborate date-rape drug, if body not discovered. Must accept accidental death theory, if body not discovered. Illegally disposing of a body would definitely be an appropriate charge, accident or not. Can it be proved, without a body, despite his taped confession. Death, can not be conclusively be declared without body. Maybe I am wrong here, but his defense will probably contend that it is more than logical to suspect dead body; however, it can not be concluded as fact unless dead body is discovered. Another appropriate charge would probably be obstruction of justice. Lies and Paulus' manipulation of influential players, within the investigation.

One thing that would change the dynamics would be Natalee's body. DNA and forensics would show substance (or lack thereof) and then the argument would definitely come into play about whether its administration caused the death (equating to manslaughter), semen - no big deal ("she was coherent when I had sex with her... she consented...then died after sex"), or injuries (likely to be explained through the disposal - "her lifeless head hit the side of the boat"). Even if her body was found, illegally disposing of a corpse and obstruction of justice of justice are the most likely to be prosecuted upon.  Joran was a minor, poor Joran, he has a good record, future ahead of him, been traumatized over the last two and a half years, please show some leniency. A few year sentence, at maximum, only has to do half the time (a day good time for every day spent in jail), subtract time already spent in jail, Joran would be out in no time...

I am just rambling...good thoughts, though, I think....

 

Did the beheaded man from the refinery own a boat? 

[Observer]

We have suspected that Koen and Joran are related which means anyone in that family would have known Joran all his life.  Koen is also older than Joran.  Koen's family has a boat.  Little brother, Sander, had his phone 'stolen' on May 30th.

We also have suspected that Lorenzo may be related to Joran.  He is older and has a boat.  Loranzo is the type of person Joran looks up to.  Rumor has it Lorenzo has some experience in removing bodies from when someone drowned in his pool.

Two interesting possibilities.

I totally agree! He is protecting who helped him,who witnessed the murder,where it really happened and what really happened to her.

It wouldnt look real cool if he told Patrick he hit her in the head with a baseball bat,or gave her too much GHB when they were raping and filming her,or specific details that would come back to haunt him if him and Patrick no longer were friends in the future.

They really should have waited another 2 months or so and let him talk more about it All I saw so far was just that one recording in the car. Just imagine what he would have told this guy if he was drunk and talking about it a 3rd and 4th time.

[Frank]

it's his father he's protecting, it's obvious and he has to confess. Instinctually, he knows his father is using him to keep it together.

His father has more to lose.

For a guy who "would do anything to protect his son" he sure hasn't done much to prevent tomorrow when he goes to OJland.

Good Paulus. Real good.

[Anna]

IMO, Joren can't tell his new gangsta buddy he called his daddy to help him out.  That doesn't sound very tough at all.  And after Paulus arrived, he sent Joran home.

Joran doesn't know whose boat was used.

.

[fran]

Joran: "Something happened, I didn't kill her, the ocean is big, right? I got very lucking they never found her (no body no case). I think I'm in the clear, they wont find a body. Let me tell you I never talked about this to anyone. They dumped her in the ocean. I know people who could helped me, I'm not naming names. It's not my parents, it was a friend, with a boat. "


why in the world would he throw in  'it's not my parents' ???

I know this is going to be way off, LOL, I'm trying to catch up!

Anyway, the last sentence of this quote, IMO, is revealing.

Is a denial = truth ??????????


 
fran

[cubbeegirl]

it's his father he's protecting, it's obvious and he has to confess. Instinctually, he knows his father is using him to keep it together.

His father has more to lose.

For a guy who "would do anything to protect his son" he sure hasn't done much to prevent tomorrow when he goes to OJland.

Good Paulus. Real good.

Yep and look at OJ now...

[klaasend]

Somebody has told this seizure story before!  Why else would they
be asking Dave if Natalee had ever had seizures?

Something bad happened.  The retracted confession. The FBI knows, ALE knows, KLPD knows.  They couldn't find Natalee's body.

[kippy]

I think if we knew the whole truth it would be even more shocking that what we think might have happened. I think the Kalpoes were sexually involved (deepak said as much in an email). I think Paulus was involved from the time Natalee died. Of course Joran, called his father when his date died. We know van stratten helped to undermine the investigation and that Jahnsen deliberately arrested the security gurds when she knew they were innocent. We know the Judges are personal friends of the Sloots and changed the search warrant to restrict the search. The crime itself was uglier than we can imagine, the talk of a head wound in the initial alibi was not misdirection. It was said because they feared the body could wash up, Joran even said he was lucky the body was not found. This is a hideous crime by three suspects with a government coverup.

Did you notice DeVries never mentioned the coverup? Thats because he knows only how far he can push the real story.

I think PVS was involved even before Natalee died.  I don't think Natalee was random, I tend to believe she was chosen.

[Magnolia]

I am falling asleep.  Just wanted to say before I go that
Joran is 20 times the butt hole that I had thought he was,
and I have always considered his as such.
He was despicable on that tape today and if I could have
gotten my hands around his neck I would have choked him
until his one big eye and his one little eye popped right
out of his big Frankenstein head.
Nite all.

[Observer]

Very nice post Buckshot!

[cubbeegirl]

Night monkeyfaces! See you tomorrow!

[klaasend]

http://www.cnn.com:80/2008/CRIME/02/03/natalee.holloway.suspect/

Video: Suspect says Holloway's body dumped 'like an old rag'


(CNN) -- An investigative judge said Sunday that sufficient reason exists to reopen the inquiry against Joran van der Sloot, a suspect in the 2005 disappearance of Alabama teenager Natalee Holloway from the island of Aruba.

The announcement came shortly after Dutch television aired a program in which Van der Sloot told a man he considered to be his friend that he was with the 18-year-old on a beach near her hotel when she died, and that he arranged for a friend to take her body to sea and dump it.

"He went out to sea and then he threw her out, like an old rag," he told Aruban businessman Patrick van der Eem on January 16.

(snipped)

[BUCKSHOT]

Very nice post Buckshot!

excuse the typos - i was on a roll.

[Kiwi]

I think if we knew the whole truth it would be even more shocking that what we think might have happened. I think the Kalpoes were sexually involved (deepak said as much in an email). I think Paulus was involved from the time Natalee died. Of course Joran, called his father when his date died. We know van stratten helped to undermine the investigation and that Jahnsen deliberately arrested the security gurds when she knew they were innocent. We know the Judges are personal friends of the Sloots and changed the search warrant to restrict the search. The crime itself was uglier than we can imagine, the talk of a head wound in the initial alibi was not misdirection. It was said because they feared the body could wash up, Joran even said he was lucky the body was not found. This is a hideous crime by three suspects with a government coverup.

Did you notice DeVries never mentioned the coverup? Thats because he knows only how far he can push the real story.

No doubt there are things in the archives and statements that tie this together. Its already ugly and it will expand before its over.

[Tylergal]

Okay, I don't venture into toxic waters so can someone please help me out here, who is MP16?  Is that Ramm or Reality?

[klaasend]

Nite Magnolia and Cubbee

[Tylergal]

I think if we knew the whole truth it would be even more shocking that what we think might have happened. I think the Kalpoes were sexually involved (deepak said as much in an email). I think Paulus was involved from the time Natalee died. Of course Joran, called his father when his date died. We know van stratten helped to undermine the investigation and that Jahnsen deliberately arrested the security gurds when she knew they were innocent. We know the Judges are personal friends of the Sloots and changed the search warrant to restrict the search. The crime itself was uglier than we can imagine, the talk of a head wound in the initial alibi was not misdirection. It was said because they feared the body could wash up, Joran even said he was lucky the body was not found. This is a hideous crime by three suspects with a government coverup.

Did you notice DeVries never mentioned the coverup? Thats because he knows only how far he can push the real story.

No doubt there are things in the archives and statements that tie this together. Its already ugly and it will expand before its over.

Yes, but Rome was not destroyed in a day, you begin in tiny increments and make the reader want more and by the end of it, you have uncovered it for it to self-destruct.