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It appears Sam Redman is associated with Scrux. http://scrux.com/natalee/crackhousetheory.htmThe CrackHouse Theory (by Sam Redman) Sam Redman has prepared a fanciful essay on what might be the real story. It is a good fictional tale, but one which might explain the mystery to some. This is an example of wild speculation.
The Crack House Theory
an essay by Sam Redman
The crackhouse theory is based on early statements from the police, and later, from others, that Natalee "may have ended up in a crackhouse" and that she "would show up in a couple of days."
This story (which, of course, as far as any one knows, is entirely fictional) begins at around 2:00 am when Joran and Natalee are dropped off by Deepak Kalpoe and Satish Kalpoe at the Marriott beach area. Perhaps, Natalee told them while driving around that she wanted to go to a crack house (possibly one which she had already visited on a previous night). " Hey," maybe she says, "I want to go to that drug house where we went the other night, that was fun."
Some stories have circulated that Natalee had not even spent a single night in her own hotel room, and while that might be explained away other ways (visiting other girls' rooms), it is probable that she might have been quite an active "party girl" during her stay (lots of other young tourist girls go "wild" on these Aruba trips). Now, maybe she was looking for one last wild time before departure the next morning.
Crack houses are well known
The crack houses are such an institution in Aruba, that someone like Mickey John (one of the arrested security guards) just mentioned it casually in his interviews after being released from jail, You may have noticed that no reporters even reacted to his statement with follow up questions saying, "Crack house? Are you kidding, here in Aruba? Where are they?" In addition, the superintendent of police himself mentioned, very early in the case, that they had "checked several of the crack houses," saying this very odd, very alarming information (at least, to most people from suburban America), in about the same casual style as someone might say, "We checked several of the Starbuck's coffeshops."
The police chief, by his casualness, also demonstrated how commonplace it is for tourists to go there, when he didn't follow up on that by announcing , "We are bringing all of those crack house people in for intensive questioning." He just left it at "checking to see" if she was there (like you might call a coffee shop to see if one of your friends had stopped by earlier). So, we know that crack houses are around and that they are readily accessible to those who know where they are and that they are not a surprise to average guys, like local security guards, or regarded as out of the ordinary by the police. These are businesses with one requirement the same as any legal business; they must have customers to stay in business. So, since they do exist, we can assume that lots of people must know all about them.
Just providing "the ride"
The Kalpoe brothers that evening were, most likely, merely providing transportation. They would have known and respected that Natalee was Joran's project (that is the way guys work it, when one guy has a chance to have a sexual liaison, buddies don't crowd another guy's action) , so they probably didn't participate any further than letting them off there. However, they most likely were aware of Joran's and Natalee's intended destination. Guys talk to each other about what they are doing to have fun.
This theory postulates that this would have been a particular crack house, which they, not only, all knew about, but it would have been one which would have to have been within walking distance of that Marriott beach drop-off point. Logic might dictate that if there is such a place within walking distance, it would be a good place to start the investigation. The Kalpoes (and many other people on the island) could most likely take you right to it.
Just something fun to do
So, possibly Joran took Natalee there. We also know something Joran knew. He knew that he had exams later that morning and he might even have thought that this excursion would have even been a good experience for him with those tests coming in a matter of hours, because crack (or even powdered coke) would make him wide awake for his examinations. So it is easy to picture Joran considering the suggestion of a little crack smoking and thinking that it sounded ok to him. Evidently, rumor has it, these places also keep other drugs, like the best Amsterdam pot and hash. Plus, it is a "safe" place to do them. Unlike the way a lot of tourists arrive in Aruba believing, drugs are not legal, just plentiful. Like all drug operations in Aruba these places are said to be run by a ruthless South American crime cartel. While that may not be verifiable, we know they are certainly managed by very unsavory underworld characters, who are not people to be trifled with by the regular citizenry.
At the crack house, it is easy to assume that both Joran and Natalee would have smoked some crack, perhaps along with some other drugs. It is also possible that Natalee also would have done some smack (heroin) or maybe some kind of narcotic sedative like Dilaudid (common form of pharmaceutical morphine), because she wanted to be relaxed for the morning flight.
Joran had to leave
Now after a while, it makes sense that Joran would have been saying, "I have to get home and get ready for school." Maybe then is when he text messages Deepak about coming to get them. But, that plan might have changed (maybe while the call was being made) because, it seems reasonable that one of the crack house coordinators would have said, "No need for you to have someone go to that trouble, I have my car here. I will be happy to drop you both off." Joran then would have then done the text message back to Deepak that he got a ride.
Assuming all was well
Now, here is where the mystery theory develops and really begins to fit the stories, or alibis, that Joran told. The crack house man (he could have been just a lower echelon driver) might have dropped off Joran first at Joran's house, telling Joran that he "will take Natalee on to the Holiday Inn." That would have sounded fine with Joran, he would have been home and he wouldn't have to be concerned anymore about Natalee's situation. He would have then text messaged Deepak that he "is home." So, we can now visualize the car departing with Natalee riding with the crack house guy to what she thinks is her hotel. Joran would have gone to bed, also assuming that Natalee was indeed being dropped off at the Holiday Inn.
At school the next morning
When morning arrived, Joran would have routinely headed off to school, all the time assuming that everything had worked out ok. He would not have known anything was amiss until later in the day, when there was some of the publicity starting about a missing teen. So, when he is first at school, it is easy to understand him telling several of his buddies that he had sex with that girl they saw him with the night before at the Excelsior Casino and at Carlos 'n Charlies. The story is now falling well into place fitting rumors we have heard. When the publicity starts, his headmaster calls him in and tells him to stop talking about Natalee, because she has missed her flight.
At this point, Joran would then have contacted the Kalpoe brothers and said, "let's get our stories straight." They all would have known they could not mention anything about the crack house, because of the fear of reprisals from the very dangerous criminal cartel who runs the crack house and, of course, Joran would have had to tell his parents and school officials that he had visited such a place. If this is the truth, it is easy to see someone wanting to keep it quiet.
Creating the cover story
So, they would then substitute the story that instead of them dropping Joran and Natalee at the Marriott beach area (which they assume everyone would know is close by that crack house), they take the very story of what they assume was the the crack house driver's experience and tell that as their own. At that point, as far as they know that is most likely not the truth, since Natalee isn't showing up, but they imagine that, either she went back to that crack house later (after being dropped off) or that she returned to the crack house with the driver. Either way, they just assume that she will show up later that evening. It is not hard to believe that might have had this experience with other tourist girls a time or two (even the police said later that they know this does happen).
Telling the first version
At 1:00 AM (now Tuesday) a group of Alabama men (parents of other students) along with Jug and Beth Twitty and with a couple of Aruba cops (and peculiarly, also a United States DEA agent, who they say just happened to be at the hotel) show up at Joran's house. This is the first time Paulus has heard anything about it. The people are saying, "My daughter missed her flight and we know that Joran was the last person seen with her." They are demanding, " Where is my daughter?" After Joran shows up, Joran tells his "dropped her off at the Holiday Inn story." Plus, a local who was there (he owns a cellphone company), Charles Croes, tells in a tv interview that Joran volunteers to help anyway he can. Unfortunately, the Alabama men start to get loud and boisterous and demand to know where Natalee is. They at this point most likely think that Natalee and Joran are merely having a romantic tryst and that Natalee is just staying over and they are concerned about her throwing away her career plans for a summer fling. Paulus is completely surprised and shocked by their behavior and so taken aback that this is the reason he tells his son to "say nothing." He doesn't know what his son has done, but he wants to find out and advise him later after everyone has gone. Of course, even in private, Joran would have still told Paulus the same "dropped Natalee off at the Holiday Inn" story, earlier concocted with the Kalpoe brothers. . Paulus would have been satisfied with that, but being an attorney, he would have been cautious in the light of the now rampaging Twittys and therefore advised his son and the Kalpoes to keep a low profile since a girl was missing and that is what a lawyer would tell anyone.
Possibly a horrific irony
Here is could have been a horribly ironic circumstance. When the Alabama group showed up with the police at Joran's house, it is possible that Natalee was still alive back at the crack house, maybe still not yet out of her a drugged state, and the drug guys were patiently waiting for her to come down enough to just be straight enough to return to her hotel. From the way people talked, a two day come down was not that uncommon. A worse case scenario would have been that she might have been being used for the pleasure of visiting drug cartel bosses (although this would be not very plausible). In either situation, after she was "straight," they would have gotten her out of there alive (probably giving her a ride to the hotel). This was a scene that had repeated often (letting them sleep it off) with many of these young tourist girls.
But now, when all the media starting paying attention and the tiny island of Aruba was swarming with cameras they knew they could not want their drug operation to be exposed. So, they might have concluded that Natalee had to disappear. Experienced at this, they would have then just killed her. But, there are many other variations of might have happened at the drug house as, for example, an accidental drug overdose, which occured after Joran left. In this explanation, when Joran was ready to go, Natalee couldn't, because she was just too "wasted," so, the drug employess might have given only Joran a ride home with Natalee staying behind, sleeping away in a comfortable bed. They might have fully intended that they would take Natalee to her hotel after she came down, but then she perhaps died accidently, maybe just not waking up.
Left with a body
In either event, they would have been left with a body and most likely would have disposed of the body 100 miles or more out to sea, where they knew she would never be found (they are professionals at this). For decades have known how to make bodies disappear. Next, it seems logical that the crime cartel would have dismantled that crack house, removing all evidence. It would even make sense that someone, who would not attract attention, is now living at that location, perhaps a nice family with several kids and a few dogs.
A story changes
How does the story change? When Kalpoe brothers are in custody they decide to tell the truth as far as their involvement, when they put a face on one of the security guards. If any of this complicated tale is true, the Kalpoes don't know really know what happened to Joran and Natalee after they left them, and if they were told by Joran, they can't mention "crack house," because they know that the crime cartel would kill them and they would become "disappeared ones" as well.
Next, when Joran finds out that the Kalpoe brothers are now telling the truth about where they dropped Natalee and Joran, he would have scrambled to change his story to that same one as well. At this point they would all now telling the truth as they know it. It would have even been the truth (although not the whole story) when they told Mickey John that they told their first lie because they figured Natalee would be turning up in a crack house (as other tourist girls have probably done before).
A lack of evidence
At this point, Paulus would have been just as puzzled about this as anyone and, even now, probably wonders like the rest of us, what really did happen. The Kalpoe brothers, and Joran, of course, by now have figured all the missing pieces out quite easily, but they know they can't tell any more than they have. They knew they will be released for lack of evidence, they all would have known how proficient the drug people would have been in getting rid of evidence and so they were confident (and still are) that the search would not produce anything and this will just remain, forever, an unsolved mystery.
What next?
So where should focus of the investigation be now? If any of this makes sense, it needs to turn to the crack houses (these are really just safe drug houses, very much like the opium dens of an earlier era). Why doesn't the team of private investigators (and undercover police) start paying visits to all of the crack houses (the ones which everyone knows are frequented by the college students on break)? Why don't they investigate the people who run those houses? Question the crime bosses who control and supply those houses. Of course, they won't do that. It is easier to focus on upstanding, generally law abiding citizens like Joran and his Dad and the Kalpoes. But, getting behind the scenes into the seamy side of the city? That is not so easy. The US has a Drug Enforcement team present on the island (remember there was an agent who went to the Van der Sloot home with the Twittys) so they are in a position to provide necessary infomation.
One way to start might be to interview all of the other kids on that trip and demand frank answers (like those which they have demanded from Joran and his Dad and the Kalpoes). They would find out that drugs were plentiful on the trip. I spoke to a university student today who told me that such drug availability is a large part of the appeal of a Caribbean vacation to college age kids today. We know that the appeal of the environment in Aruba (some of that stemming from misconceptions about the Dutch connections) at the time of the Mountain Brook trip was that it was very tolerant of drugs.
So, the next step is to find out about any drugs Natalee and others may have used. Then trace down where they came from in Aruba. Then find out where the "crack house," which Marty Johns so casually referred to, is located and any other "crack houses" in the area of the Marriott beach. Spread rewards for information around generously. But, the reality is we will most likely never know. Theories like this are disgarded as being too preposterous. The focus was only ever on the three guys. If that doesn't change and the investigation doesn't go deeper, then this case is over. There is no body, there is no evidence of a crime. Joran's and the Kalpoe brothers' story is frozen forever.
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