Given Shango's penchant for Occam...we can simply say that Natalee left with 3 men and never returned...something bad happened. That is as far as we can go with that premise. Shango tells about a mystery man that knows all and sees all and we are to keep it simple? Shango tells us about gamblers and lions and elders and a game and we are to keep it simple? Shango tells us about a house of rave and drugs and movies and we are to keep it simple? Shango should have taken his own advice. That sounds like CC to me...he never kept it simple in his dealings at any time...he was always the grandiose writer that wanted the glory for himself. His own family had issues with him...he was a liar. Of course none of my rantings does anything to identify our mystery man...so I guess I am ranting again. LOL
au contraire, IMO ...
Occam's Razor/a medieval principle:
"All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best."
or "Entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity".
or "Plurality should not be posited without necessity".
In other words, when multiple competing theories are equal in other respects, the principle recommends selecting the theory that introduces the fewest assumptions and postulates the fewest entities. It is in this sense that Occam's razor is usually understood.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ockham_razorin context, shango's reference to Occam
was in reply to another poster
Anne on June 26th, 2005 5:45 pm
Kristin: I don’t know anymore who the singing Babylonian would be, really. And edie, I don’t really know about Joran, either.
Instinctually I believe he is guilty (Occam’s Razor) but since the politician in US said this case is different than any other missing/kidnapping case, I suspect perhaps he might have been a convenient scapegoat. He and Dad might be involved in some bad business, but what our Aruban friends here intimate is that it’s nowhere near as pervasive or insidious as that of “DirtyHand” - or whomever is truly responsible for Natalee’ s ultimate fate. Not even sure if I’m in the right church, let alone pew.
Shango on June 26th, 2005 5:48 pm
The simplicity of Occams Razor is often outweighed by the complexity of maintaining factors in an elemental state.
elemental: basic/simple/underlying
shango wasn't advising anyone to keep it simple ...
but pointing out how difficult it sometimes becomes
to remain focused in a complex situation
meaning that the true picture
often contains much more than initially imagined
and that Occam's Razor is hard to apply here
shango's
story is quite simple
but the language/style makes it seem
more than what it is
minus the catchy caribbean phraseology,
it is frequently portrayed on the lifetime channel ...
"television for women"
a basic lifetime channel scenario
is a female harmed/assaulted/endangered/murdered/etc
by one or more males
w/ an ensuing cover-up enabled by other males
the basics include, but aren't limited to,
little boys/big boys (children of the elders)
who swing into action using whatever powers
they can muster to keep the game going
and minimize/avoid an unfavorable outcome:
pervert deputy - crooked sheriff condones it
pervert athlete - coach w/ winning team condones it
pervert student - disbelieving principal condones it
violent ex/stalker - ineffective court system condones it
etc
using these examples in NH's case, per shango,
the sheriff/coach/principal/court system
were not only covering for one of their own ...
they were in on the game
I get it that involved parties and their minions
came to the various forums to spread misinformation
but why does that negate what many of the locals
were sharing in the first 30 days?
LvR drew the short straw at the meeting
so his name/his bad rep was bandied about
for no good reason?
hindsight being 20/20, does sim's 5th suspect
fit w/ what was rumored early on?
does shango's "old boys network"
fit w/ what came to light re the obvious cover-up?
I didn't need shango to tell me that something
went terribly wrong down there:
a small-town environment
corrupted by a constant party atmosphere
which was a breeding ground
where kids w/o direction pretty much ran wild,
drinking/gambling in clubs/casinos
and preying on tourists
while their parents made excuses for them
not to mention what the adults were into ...
and it all blew up on the international stage
easily thousands of people who never visited a forum
think this whole ordeal reeks of cover-up
and they concluded that w/o the codetalkers
shango had a very small audience
but in retrospect the detail provided
seems more likely than not
there are santa marta(s) and moko(s) all over the planet
but why would we look at those when,
in context at the time of the TES search,
sim was naming those particular aruban locations?
that is a very recent example (and no offense intended)
but my point a few posts back re googling
was that we often find ourselves way far beyond
the reasonable scope of inquiry
which accomplishes ... what?
I won't be around much this weekend
or have time to do more than some quick reading
so have at kicking my ass around for a couple days, LOL
laters
PS: I liked this from the Occam wiki page:
When discussing Occam's razor in contemporary medicine, doctors and philosophers of medicine speak of diagnostic parsimony. Diagnostic parsimony advocates that when diagnosing a given injury, ailment, illness or disease, a doctor should strive to look for the fewest possible causes that will account for all the symptoms. While diagnostic parsimony might often be beneficial, credence should also be given to the counter-argument modernly known as Hickam's dictum, which succinctly states that "patients can have as many diseases as they damn well please."
