Yay! Some GOOD news about the economy!

[WhiskeyGirl]

Unemployment is very cruel right now.  We are holding out own in the middle of the pack, but that is deceptive.  We have lost many of the higher paying jobs and people have taken what they can just to make ends meet or freeze to death.  Many are now working two jobs at minimum wage with no benefits.  They don't technically count on the unemployment, yet are falling behind day by day.  Every night seems to bring a new list of layoffs in our state.

Proms, college expense etc. etc. was expensive for us back in the day.   I had three daughters attending high school at the same time.  My son was inexpensive because he and a group of his friends always preferred to attend the dances "stag" which was a new concept in those days.  A group of guys and a group of girls seemed to enjoy just meeting up at restaurants, dances and parties and paying their own way.  This was in a private school so it was a small class, but a very close one.

Back in the day, I was friends with a set of twins.  One went to prom, the other didn't.  Their father was a practical man.  From his stand point, it was a matter of money.  He reminded them several times (I'm not sure 'remind' is the right word) that if they both had been invited, they would have been shopping at the Goodwill.  They were horrified.

I sometimes wonder if it wasn't a personal sacrifice by one for the other.  The one that went, had a boyfriend that wore a polyester leisure suit and gym shoes.

[A's Fever]

A mixed bag of economic reports brings some slivers of good news.  Not major harbingers of recovery but hints that the economy is bottoming and will eventually recover:


Consumer Confidence Holds Steady in March
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/03/31/ap6235302.html

Manufacturing Better, But Growth Still Some Time Off
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/04/01/manufacturing-better-but-growth-still-some-time-off/

GM, Ford Post U.S. Sales Decline Less than Estimates
http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/apr2009/bw2009041_375903.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_news+%2B+analysis

And then the really bad news, but not unanticipated:

Job Losses at 742,000 in March; Planned Layoffs Fall
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29988373

(and this isn’t going to get any better if GM files bankruptcy)

[A's Fever]

Larry Kudlow on "mustard seeds" of recovery and the money supply:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29998584

[A's Fever]

I think inflation is with us already.  Social Security checks got their largest increase ever for 2009, something like 5.8%.  Scared a lot of people I know, they thought it was a mistake.  Social Security is a COLA.  Some believe it doesn't increase enough, others believe it increases to much.

Where are the new jobs?  I don't see any being created that add value to the economy.

Who's putting together all those goods in the 'orders' I keep hearing about?  Who manufactures refrigerators?  Americans?  I don't think so.

Who's buying all the houses? 

The 2009 5% increase was based on the inflation rate from the 3rd quarter of 2007 through the 3rd quarter of 2008, before the economy "fell off a cliff".  Note that next year the COLA increase will be only a little over 1% because inflation has slowed dramatically.  The Fed does not see a current inflation threat, in fact, in comments released after the 3/17-3/18/09 FOMC meeting, the Fed fears that there is a risk that inflation may be too low:

"In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued.  Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term."


http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090318a.htm

[nonesuche]

I feel increasing inflation is a real risk.

I was away for a division meeting and I want all of you to know that some of Obama's statements and policies were literally laughed at by some of our leadership, who made it clear they are not 'caving into' pressures for change. That is a real bellwether for how seriously Obama is being taken, I happen to agree with Obama regarding those specific policies and advisements but I am not in a position with a span of control to make an impact.

[oldiebutgoodie]

Optimism on U.S. economy up: poll

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Americans have grown more optimistic about the economy and the direction of the country since President Barack Obama took office in January, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll on Monday.

Two-thirds of respondents said they approved of Obama's overall job performance.

Just 31 percent said they had a favorable view of the Republican Party, the lowest in the 25 years the question has been asked in the poll, The New York Times said.

The number of people who said they thought the United States was headed in the right direction jumped from 15 percent during the final days of Republican President George W. Bush's administration in mid-January, before the inauguration, to 39 percent today, the newspaper said.

The number of respondents who said the country was headed in the wrong direction dropped to 53 percent from 79 percent.

Thirty-four percent said the economy, already contracting, was getting worse, down from 54 percent just before Obama took office.

According to the poll, 20 percent of Americans now think the economy is getting better, compared with 7 percent in mid-January.

LINK

[nonesuche]

I am not a big believer in polls as validation. One course in quantitative statistics in undergrad exposed the skews and holes in polls when I was in college.

However, I think a more meaningful poll might be executing one with corporate leadership to gauge how many have intent to follow Obama's economic policies as they relate to their organizations, markets, and federal policies.

[GreatOwl]

I am not a big believer in polls as validation. One course in quantitative statistics in undergrad exposed the skews and holes in polls when I was in college.

However, I think a more meaningful ------

 might be executing corporate leadership

Sorry none:  Yes I did edit your post....               Just too good to pass up

Yes, I do agree with your views on statistical analysis.  Those in the know can skew them just about anyway they think will favor their views. 

[nonesuche]

I am not a big believer in polls as validation. One course in quantitative statistics in undergrad exposed the skews and holes in polls when I was in college.

However, I think a more meaningful ------

 might be executing corporate leadership

Sorry none:  Yes I did edit your post....               Just too good to pass up

Yes, I do agree with your views on statistical analysis.  Those in the know can skew them just about anyway they think will favor their views. 

Touche` GO !!! As always, I like your style 

[oldiebutgoodie]

Wells Fargo earnings surprise sends market higher

NEW YORK-- Stocks surged today to their highest levels in two months after banking giant Wells Fargo & Co. surprised the market with an early profit report that blew past analysts' expectations thanks to a strong pickup in its lending business.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped nearly 250 points and major market indexes logged their fifth straight week of gains. Markets are closed for Good Friday.

Investors have been grasping at any sign of improvement in the crippled banking industry, and Wells Fargo's report Thursday that it expects first-quarter earnings of $3 billion provided an encouraging sign that a deep freeze in borrowing activity may finally be thawing.

[...]

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow rose 246.27, or 3.1 percent, to 8,083.38.

[...]

Broader stock indicators also rose sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 31.40, or 3.8 percent, to 856.56.

[...]

The Nasdaq composite index rose 61.88, or 3.9 percent, to 1,652.54, its highest finish of the year. In 2009, the index is up 4.8 percent.

[...]

About seven stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume came to 1.8 billion shares.

Treasury prices fell as the stock rally damped demand for safe-haven investments. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.93 percent from 2.86 percent late Wednesday.

[...]

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 3.7 percent following reports that the country's ruling party is seeking a stimulus package bigger than originally announced. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 1.5 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 3 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 1.8 percent.

MORE...

[oldiebutgoodie]

At last, economy leveling off — but bumps not over

WASHINGTON – At last, after a nerve-racking six-month descent, the economy appears to be leveling off.

But don't assume the bumps are over.

Stock investors, shoppers and home buyers are less jittery. Once-frozen credit markets are slowly thawing. And economic indicators that had been going from bad to worse are showing signs of stabilizing — though still at distressed levels.

There were fresh signs Thursday that the full force of the recession may be petering out: a strong profit forecast from Wells Fargo, a drop in unemployment benefit filings and several retailers predicting solid April sales. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials rose nearly 250 points.

Still, with unemployment rising, it will be at least several months before the country's economic engine pops into a growth gear. Job losses — and the fear of them — act as a headwind against consumer confidence and spending, which account for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

"The sense of a ball falling off a table, which is what the economy has felt like since the middle of last fall, I think we can be reasonably confident that that is going to end within the next few months, and we will no longer have that sense of a free-fall," President Barack Obama's top economic adviser, Lawrence Summers, said Thursday.

But Summers, who spoke at the Economic Club of Washington, said it was too soon to forecast how strong the rebound would be and when it would take hold.

[...]

The government reported last month that consumer spending rose in February for the second month in a row — after a half-year of declines.

Shoppers' appetites to spend should get a lift later this year from tax cuts contained in Obama's $787 billion economic stimulus package. Tax credits of $400 per worker and $800 per couple translate into about $13 a week less withheld from paychecks starting around June.

The hope is that the added consumer spending will prompt retailers to replenish inventories, which have been cut nearly to the bone during the recession. That would require factories to boost production, creating a ripple of positive economic activity.

[...]

Another positive flicker came Thursday from the Labor Department, which reported that the number of newly laid off Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped by 20,000 last week to 654,000.

[...]

"In view of the state of the credit markets, it seems a fair bet that it will take time for momentum to build," Gary Stern, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis said in a speech Thursday. "But with the passage of time — as we get into the middle of 2010 and beyond — I would expect to see a resumption of healthy growth."

[...]

"Yes we have probably seen the worst ... but the shape of the recovery will look more like the Nike swoosh," meaning a gradual — not sharp — rise back to normal, said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp.

MORE...

[nonesuche]

When pressed only then doe Summers admit, when and if we rebound.........

Leadership I speak with within business and industry are continuing to see little gain in sales, even little gain in deeper sales with existing customers and business is beyond challenging to close - sales cycles are double what they were a year ago. When those leading indicators begin to trend up, I might just believe there is a light at the end of the recession tunnel.

We are far from there yet........

[A's Fever]

Here is an IBD poll that supports the Consumer Confidence report numbers I posted previously.  This is important because consumers generate approximately 70% of our economic activity, so if consumers are feeling better, the economy will benefit.  I do note, however, that business executives do not share the increased optimism yet, which supports None's point.  FWIW, IBD is a conservative publication that is not at all enamored with Obama.


Consumers Express Optimism Economy Has Begun To Turn
By SCOTT STODDARD, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 04/07/2009 07:17 PM ET
 
 
Consumer confidence has begun to rebound as recent stock market gains and better-than-expected economic data fuel hopes that the 17-month recession might be coming to an end.

The IBD/TIPP economic optimism index rose to 49.1 from 45.3 in March, its highest level since November, when Barack Obama's election victory sparked a brief spike. That's still below the 50 mark that indicates optimism, but it's 5.3 points above the 12-month average and only 2.2 points below the long-run average of 51.3.

Stronger-than-expected durable goods orders and home sales have helped drive a monthlong stock market rally, giving consumers and investors a long-awaited sense of hope. Changes to accounting rules aimed at stemming losses at big banks also helped.
"I do tentatively believe that we are in a recovery," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts the poll with Investor's Business Daily.

"The recent strength the market has been showing goes a long way in building confidence," he added.

IBD/TIPP's six-month economic outlook soared 10 points to 50.2. The personal financial outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their finances in the next six months, rose 1.6 points to 52.7.

With consumer spending accounting for 70% of economic activity, Mayur said, "confidence helps to keep the spending going."

The IBD/TIPP poll is the earliest reading on consumer confidence each month and correlates closely with changes in consumer surveys released later in the month by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board.

The optimism index recorded a similar spike toward the end of 2001, when the economy began pulling out of the last recession.

Still, stocks fell for a second straight session Tuesday amid worries that Q1 earnings will continue to show the economy struggling to emerge from its worst recession in decades. The Dow fell 2.3%, the S&P 500 2.4% and the Nasdaq 2.8%, though all remain well above their March lows.

Some analysts say the recent uptick in economic data signal that the recession has hit bottom and that the stock market will rally in anticipation of a recovery.

Corporate executives, however, appear glum. The Business Roundtable's CEO economic outlook index dived Tuesday to minus 5, the first negative reading since the survey began in 2002. Readings below 50 indicate CEOs expect the economy to contract.

More than two-thirds of CEOs said they plan plan additional layoffs and expect sales to fall in the next six months, the survey said.
The economy is expected to start a gradual recovery later this year. But much is riding on the government's $787 billion stimulus and efforts to stabilize the financial system, analysts say.

The IBD/TIPP measure of how government economic policies are working fell 0.2 point to 44.5.

Last week, the Financial Accounting Standards Board moved to ease mark-to-market accounting rules that have forced financial firms to book huge losses on bad debt. Giving financial firms more flexibility in valuing assets is expected to boost their earnings and help ease the recession, but some argue that it will only delay the pain.

"Until they fundamentally get a financial system where credit is available and the Fed isn't the lender of last resort, then they'll continue to have problems," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at ChannelCapitalResearch.com.

Avg. Rating:       (1) Your Rating: 

[nonesuche]

A's thanks for the info, I agree consumer spending is an important leading indicator but I just don't feel anything is sustained currently. A neighbor had their home foreclosed on this week and it's weighing heavily on my heart. Husband and wife lost their jobs 5 months ago, just unable to make the payments without finding new work which is quite scarce.

Today even Obama admitted it could be year-end before the worm turns........I have to imagine the impact particularly in job losses and foreclosures will be devastating by then.

[oldiebutgoodie]

U.S. Economy: Jobless Claims Fall, Housing Stabilizes

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Claims for U.S. unemployment insurance unexpectedly dropped last week and single-family housing starts stabilized in March, providing more evidence the economic slump is easing.

[...]

The economy is likely to keep shrinking through mid-year, and unemployment may rise further into 2010, analysts said. At the same time, today’s figures -- including a survey showing that the manufacturing contraction in the Philadelphia region is lessening -- back up Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s view this week that the U.S.’s “sharp decline” may be slowing.

“We are beginning to move away from the state of panic and that’s what these reports are showing us,” said John Herrmann, chief economist at Herrmann Forecasting in Summit, New Jersey.

[...]

“There’s a real possibility this could be a turning point,” said James O’Sullivan, senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “We’ve seen some fading of weakness in consumer spending. The logical next step would be some fading of weakness in the labor market.”

Still, the report from Labor showed the number of people collecting benefits jumped to a record 6.02 million a week earlier, indicating companies are not hiring even as firings slow.

[...]

In another sign the housing slump may be nearing a bottom, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo’s confidence index rose this month to the highest level since October, the group said yesterday. Record-low mortgage rates and falling prices started to stir demand.

Sales of both new and existing home rose in February and regional reports suggest the gains may continue. Southern California house and condominium sales climbed 52 percent in March from a year earlier as buyers took advantage of plunging prices, MDA DataQuick, a San Diego-based research company, said yesterday.

[...]

The economy has lost about 5.1 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, making it the biggest employment slump of the post World War II era. Payrolls fell by 663,000 in March and the jobless rate climbed to 8.5 percent, the highest level since 1983.

MORE...


This was a very long article and is well worth reading. I appreciate the reporters' way of acknowledging the scary and depressing stuff about the economy while at the same time acknowledging the signs that the worst of it may be slowing down and consumer confidence and other economic indicators are showing some hope that there's light at the end of the tunnel.

Too many "media types" are focused only on the negative and it seems to go hand-in-hand with a fair dose of Obama Derangement Syndrome... as if anything good that might happen anywhere at anytime to anyone in this country might somehow reflect in a positive way on our President. It's kind of funny, actually, how some folks twist themselves into pretzel shapes to suit an extremist agenda over simply dealing with what is. I've seen the same extremism and pretending the truth isn't the truth when it really is the truth coming from BOTH extreme ends of the political spectrum. Just ask any liberal if Israel has a right to exist, lol.

Anyway, I think we can get a feel for what's going on by hearing/reading the facts for ourselves rather than swallow whole anybody else's talking points. And the economy is of vital interest to all Americans, regardless of political persuasion(s). So when I see encouraging signs in these troubled times, I'm going to have a look at the data/story and just maybe it really is good news. We need genuine good news.

[oldiebutgoodie]

Major U.S. stock indexes lock in best weekly streak since May 2007

Investors fret over prospects of a lukewarm earnings season overall, but the main stock indexes dip toes in the black by afternoon.

Investors have been upbeat despite what was supposed to be a dreaded earnings season. Google, General Electric and Citigroup, which was at the heart of the financial collapse, reported better-than-expected earnings.

SEE VIDEO HERE

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- As U.S. stocks capped a sixth consecutive week of gains Friday -- the longest winning streak in nearly two years -- market watchers considered how much room remains for the rally.

"The debate has shifted from is this a bear-market rally or something more substantial to questions of how much higher do we go in this current move, and I think we have substantial room to the upside," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.

MORE...

[oldiebutgoodie]

Now, I know that Mattel toy company is not the entirety of the United States economic model but I couldn't resist this story about how Barbie is good for the economy. I love Barbie! I make all kinds of Barbie clothes and once copied Diana's breathtaking wedding gown from when she married Prince Charles for my niece's Barbie doll (yes, extra-long cathedral train and all).

Mattel shares surge as Barbie, Hot Wheels rebound

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Mattel Inc. shares surged more than 15% Friday after the world's No. 1 toy maker said sales of Barbie dolls and Hot Wheels jumped in the U.S., boosting the company's overall market share as retailers unloaded excess inventory.

[...]

"All of our core brands, including Barbie and Hot Wheels and core Fisher-Price, have been growing at retail," Mattel Chief Executive Bob Eckert said in a conference call. "Barbie's regained the momentum. Barbie is gaining share in dolls and she continues to gain share even when we measure Barbie against the total toy universe."

[...]


In the U.S., Barbie brand sales jumped 18%, boosted by the 50th anniversary of the iconic doll that drew collectors and led to promotions to spur demand.

MORE...

[nonesuche]

Obama derangement syndrome??? What are you smokin?

Most of the media outlets have been more than fair to this new president and he also doesn't have a legacy to carry, something Bush did have to carry additionally. I didn't vote for Bush either, so that isn't said from any opinion point but a realistic one.

MOST analysts are stating the economy at best, might begin to turn at year-end.

Reality check !!!

[oldiebutgoodie]

Consumer confidence soars in April

NEW YORK – Hopeful signs that the worst may be over for the economy boosted Americans' moods in April, sending a closely watched barometer of sentiment to the highest level since November.

The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose more than 12 points to 39.2, up from a revised 26.9 in March. The reading marks the highest level since November's 44.7 and well surpasses economists' expectations for 29.5.

The consumer confidence survey showed a substantial improvement in consumers' short-term outlook, including even their assessment of the job picture.

Some encouraging news in areas like retail sales and housing have helped fuel a recent stock rally. A housing index showed Tuesday that home prices dropped sharply in February, but for the first time in 25 months the decline was not a record — another sign the housing crisis could be bottoming. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 13.78 to 8,038.78 by midmorning as investors set aside worries about spread of swine flu and the viability of banks.

Improvements in the stock market have helped boost shoppers' moods, said Gary Thayer, chief economist at Wachovia Securities, but major economic problems remain — and that means that confidence could bounce up and down for awhile, he said.

"We can't say we have seen the bottom of the economy," he said. "We still have some economic concerns that we have to work through."

Economists closely monitor consumer sentiment because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

The huge jump in confidence follows a small increase in March, following a freefall in February. Still, the index remains well below year-ago levels of 62.8.

The April gains were fueled by "a significant improvement in the short-term outlook," Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement.

She added that the index measuring how shoppers feel now, which posted a moderate gain, offered "a sign that conditions have not deteriorated further and may even moderately improve in the second quarter."

The Present Situation rose slightly to 23.7 from 21.9 last month. The Expectations Index, which measures how shoppers feel about the economy over the next six months, skyrocketed to 49.5 from 30.2 in March.

That sharp increase — which marked the largest jump since a 13-point gain in November 2005 when the economy was recovering from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita — suggests that people believe the economy is nearing a bottom, Franco said. Still, she noted that the index remains well below the level associated with strong economic growth.

"It looks like the worst is behind us, but clearly we are not out of the woods," said Franco.

With companies continuing to lay off workers, a major fear is that people will cut back their spending even more, and that could plunge the economy further into a downward spiral. Economists expect the unemployment rate — now at 8.5 percent and the highest since late 1983 — will hit 10 percent by the end of the year and keep climbing next year before it starts coming down.

Meanwhile, investors are becoming more unsettled by the possibility of a major swine flu outbreak, which could stall economic recovery — particularly in regions that depend on travel and tourism. Adam York, an economist at Wachovia Securities, said such a development could dampen confidence levels for May, but it's still early to tell.

The consumer confidence survey showed that those anticipating business conditions will worsen over the next six months declined to 25.3 percent from 37.8 percent, while those expecting conditions to improve increased to 15.6 percent from 9.6 percent in March.

The employment outlook was also considerably less pessimistic. The percentage of consumers anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead declined to 33.6 percent from 41.6 percent, while those expecting more jobs increased to 13.9 percent from 7.3 percent.

LINK

[A's Fever]

Good news or just "less bad" news?  Or is "less bad" news really good news?  Whatever it is, increasing signs of stabilization can't be a bad thing.  Here's hoping that the worst is behind us and the beginning of the recovery is closer than we thought.  Though that might mean impending inflation . . . the next big worry??


Evidince is Piling Up that Worst of Recession is Over

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Evidence-piling-up-that-worst-apf-15189458.html

AND:

U.S Job Losses Slow as Economy Starts to Stabilize

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5wdJAJgq4M0&refer=home