Lindsey Baum #3 7/28/09 - 8/26/09

[JessStar]

In 2002, the United States Department of Justice commissioned a study through NISMART (National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway and Throwaway Children" called "Nonfamily Abducted Children: National Estimates and Characteristics."  I will post a copy of the actual study for anyone who wants it.  The study used the most comprehensive information available.  Importantly, it analyzed those abductions perpetarated by a stranger or slight acquaintance who transported the child 50 or more miles, detained the child overnight, held the child for ransom or with the intent to keep the child permanently, or killed the child (referred to in the study as a "Stereotypical Kidnapping).  One of the study's key findings was that in 40 percent of Stereotypical Kidnappings, the child was killed and, in another 4 percent, the child was not returned or located.  This child was returned physically injured in 32% of the cases, and returned alive in 57% of the cases.  The child was sexually assaulted 49 percent of the time.  Other motives included robbery or ransom.  During the study term, there were 115 such abductions.  46 of those children were murdered while 66 were returned alive.  The remainder were not returned or located.  More than one perpetrator was involved in a starting 48 percent of the cases.  86% of the perpetrators were male, while 7% were female.  (the remainder had no information).  The perpetrator is 20-29 years old in 36% of the cases; 13-19 years old in 21% of the cases, and 30-39 in 21% of the cases.  In 40% of the cases, the child was taken from the street, car or some other vehicle.  In 16% of the cases, the child was taken from his or her own home or yard.  The child was moved 50 miles or more in only 14% of the cases.  Most "stereotypical kidnapped" children are recovered within 24 hours (83%), with 10% lasting longer than 24 hours.

During the same time period, there were 58,200 "non-family" abductions that were not "sterotypical kidnappings."  Out of those, 99 percent were returned alive.

The study carried with it a 95% confidence interval.  What that means is that if the study was repeated 100 times, 95 of the replications would produce the same general results.

[JessStar]

AZ Sunny, my thoughts and prayers are with you.  Losing a loved one is always difficult.  Losing a soul mate is always tremendously difficult.  May God and Peace be With You.

[JessStar]

In 2002, the United States Department of Justice commissioned a study through NISMART (National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway and Throwaway Children" called "Nonfamily Abducted Children: National Estimates and Characteristics."  I will post a copy of the actual study for anyone who wants it.  The study used the most comprehensive information available.  Importantly, it analyzed those abductions perpetarated by a stranger or slight acquaintance who transported the child 50 or more miles, detained the child overnight, held the child for ransom or with the intent to keep the child permanently, or killed the child (referred to in the study as a "Stereotypical Kidnapping).  One of the study's key findings was that in 40 percent of Stereotypical Kidnappings, the child was killed and, in another 4 percent, the child was not returned or located.  This child was returned physically injured in 32% of the cases, and returned alive in 57% of the cases.  The child was sexually assaulted 49 percent of the time.  Other motives included robbery or ransom.  During the study term, there were 115 such abductions.  46 of those children were murdered while 66 were returned alive.  The remainder were not returned or located.  More than one perpetrator was involved in a starting 48 percent of the cases.  86% of the perpetrators were male, while 7% were female.  (the remainder had no information).  The perpetrator is 20-29 years old in 36% of the cases; 13-19 years old in 21% of the cases, and 30-39 in 21% of the cases.  In 40% of the cases, the child was taken from the street, car or some other vehicle.  In 16% of the cases, the child was taken from his or her own home or yard.  The child was moved 50 miles or more in only 14% of the cases.  Most "stereotypical kidnapped" children are recovered within 24 hours (83%), with 10% lasting longer than 24 hours.

During the same time period, there were 58,200 "non-family" abductions that were not "sterotypical kidnappings."  Out of those, 99 percent were returned alive.

The study carried with it a 95% confidence interval.  What that means is that if the study was repeated 100 times, 95 of the replications would produce the same general results.

The Study can be found here:

http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/nismart2_nonfamily.pdf

[Edward]

I copy and pasted it ..Thank You very much for the research study and a good statistic I can use in the future.

[JessStar]

I copy and pasted it ..Thank You very much for the research study and a good statistic I can use in the future.

No problem, Edward.  I find it emotionally trying to read those studies.  They always seem to be accompanied by an undertone that the "problem is not as bad as everyone thinks."  But to me, one murdered child is one too many.  If it were up to me, I'd be spending the One Billion Dollars on finding and saving missing children, not on Cash for Clunkers.  But to our Government, the problem of missing and exploited kids only deserves a $40 million a year allotment.  And I'm not kidding about that figure.  I don't joke about things like that--it makes me way way way too angry.

[Tamikosmom]

AZSunny

I miss ya on the Natalee Holloway forum.  I miss ya whether you are silently sitting in the rafter or you are contributing with your posts to the elusive cause of justice for this 18 year old American citizen or ... a measure of closure for her family.

 

Janet

[KarmaRoundUp]

Lindsey Baum Reward Increase



The Daily World

The reward for information leading to 11-year-old Lindsey Baum has been raised to $10,000 as investigators continue checking on new leads.

Lindsey’s mother Melissa Baum said donations have increased the reward previously offered by Crime Stoppers and the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children.

Grays Harbor Undersheriff Rick Scott said a team of investigators continue to catalog and check out new tips from when the reward was first offered. They are conducting follow-up interviews with the help of neighboring law enforcement agencies.

Lindsey disappeared on June 26 while walking a few blocks to her home in McCleary. Investigators have found no evidence explaining the 4-foot-9, brown-haired girl’s disappearance in the past month.

Melissa Baum said people can contribute to the Lindsey Baum Reward Fund at any Sterling Savings bank branch.

Anyone with information on Lindsey’s whereabouts or suspicious behavior that may be related to the case should call the tip line at 1-866-915-8299 or send an e-mail to soadmin@co.grays-harbor.wa.us.
 
http://**/articles/2009/07/31/local_news/doc4a733060c75f2234916382.txt


 

[doubledecker]

I am very glad to see the reward going up for Lindsey.  Hopefully, more people are telling something and they are following up on what the people are saying.

[doubledecker]

does anyone have any idea what it costs to hire a sketch artist?  a good one? 

[Edward]

I copy and pasted it ..Thank You very much for the research study and a good statistic I can use in the future.

No problem, Edward.  I find it emotionally trying to read those studies.  They always seem to be accompanied by an undertone that the "problem is not as bad as everyone thinks."  But to me, one murdered child is one too many.  If it were up to me, I'd be spending the One Billion Dollars on finding and saving missing children, not on Cash for Clunkers.  But to our Government, the problem of missing and exploited kids only deserves a $40 million a year allotment.  And I'm not kidding about that figure.  I don't joke about things like that--it makes me way way way too angry.

I know how you feel.. 4 years ago when we I got involved with the search for Natalee Holloway, I had only done searches physical searches for missing people before that and never done research on missing people nor seen the levels of bureaucracy ..
 Now more then 4 years later I am so frustrated with the professionals that I want the United States Government to appoint a citizen group with unlimited jurisdiction worldwide to do the research and the physical searches for missing people as we can't seem to trust THEM "So many agencies caught up in bureaucratic bull-crap and EGO, that I can't name them all" to do it properly.. I am so frustrated with the amount of unsolved cases on American soil.. We made better progress in a nation not our own with no rights to do so.. and we never let go of the suspects on that rock called Aruba and they are in fact the guilty party..
From the beginning of Amber alerts LE for the most part fails inside of the United States.. There is no common sense in any socialistic group.. You need common sense and the ability to act quickly in ALL of these cases to have any chance of catching the bad people early on.. Until the professionals start acting with urgency on ALL of these cases I am always going to be frustrated. Although it does not happen in all cases and if the criminal falls inside of the police station and confesses or LE finds the victim in the middle of the road they do solve cases and they never let us hear the end of it when that does happen.. True

[Tamikosmom]

Think about it.  Considering the girls left the video store at 8:19 PM and ... then  went to the Baum residence prior to beginning their jouney to the Kampen residence with Josh ... there could only be about a 30 minute time span between the girls' parting with Josh following the argument and ... Lindsey's expected time home after leaving the Kampen residence.

Inquiring minds want to know what time did Josh Baum arrive home that evening.

In the process of elimination ... all avenues ... even difficult avenues ... must be explored.

Janet

++++++


KaraK
Re: Lindsey Baum, 10y missing from McCleary, WA 6/26/09
« Reply #1936 on: July 10, 2009, 07:07:48 PM »

The conversation was apparently quite short and consisted of little more then a "Josh you need to go home" Josh trying to explain what was going on and the girls asking the lady to tell Josh to go home again.
 
http://scaredmonkeys.net/index.php?topic=5541.msg873229#msg873229


The Daily World - July 3, 2009

Kampen said she has replayed that Friday evening in her head over and over. So has her daughter, Michaela, 10, who spent the day swimming with Lindsey. They walked together with Josh Baum, 13, to the Kampen house. But halfway there, Michaela said they teased Josh, getting under his skin ...

http://scaredmonkeys.net/index.php?topic=5541.msg863022


KaraK
Re: Lindsey Baum, 10y missing from McCleary, WA 6/26/09
« Reply #1809 on: July 09, 2009, 04:33:45 AM »

Josh had gotten into so many spats that honestly were in a large part things he did not start but because he was the oldest he was the one who got in trouble. I've set down kids I've never met before to have a talk with them because I heard that they were antagonizing him to see if he'd blow up.

http://scaredmonkeys.net/index.php?topic=5541.msg871164;topicseen#msg871164

[no rose colored glasses]

I would like to know what time Josh got home that evening as well. But since his own mother says he is a wanderer, she probably doesn't even know.

[Tamikosmom]

I would like to know what time Josh got home that evening as well. But since his own mother says he is a wanderer, she probably doesn't even know.

I do not know if it was fear of the consequences or love for my parents that was the motivating factor but ... at 12 years of age if an adult were to instruct my brothers or I to go home ... we would be home licity split.

Janet

[no rose colored glasses]

I would like to know what time Josh got home that evening as well. But since his own mother says he is a wanderer, she probably doesn't even know.

I do not know if it was fear of the consequences or love for my parents that was the motivating factor but ... at 12 years of age if an adult were to instruct my brothers or I to go home ... we would be home licity split.

Janet

Yes, I know I would have also, but then kids were not allowed to be disrespectful to their elders, not like some kids are today.

[doubledecker]

okay I am going to try to understand this whole josh thing. 

did they police question him?  if so, do you think he could lie well enough all this time he would not convict himself if he were guilty? 

where would he hide a body or keep a person tied up/locked up or whatever?  out in the woods? in some old building?  etc. 

do you think the police just ignored him and never asked him anything? 

if he and lindsey were fighting and the lady on the street noticed and made josh go home, or at least told him to go home, then wouldn't someone else here them fighting again if they were fighting when lindsey was walking back home. 

did josh wait for lindsey along the way and they fought and he did something to her?  where would he have dragged her to? 

did she get home and he did something to her there?  again, would his mother hear them fighting? where would he drag her off to?  the dogs were at the house and searching the area around there, so wouldn't they have found her if josh did something to her at home and then dragged her out of the house to the woods around there? 

I am trying to understand how others think josh did this, hid her body, and no one finds her? the dogs have been all over town.  wouldn't they have found her scent?  if you think the weather messed up the scent, then okay, where is she?  in some house? under a house?  etc.  its been over a month, if there is a decomposing body in this heat in town, someone would know it by now.  how far could josh drag her out in the woods?  a mile?  1000 feet?  I would think they have searched at least 1000 feet all the way around the town?  I would hope they did.  did he sink her in water?  how would he weight her down? 

do you think he killed her then called someone to help him dispose of her? 

I am just trying to understand how you think josh is responsible and no one has figured that out by now.  I'm not saying he isn't able to do this, I do believe 12 year old kids can do this, but I would think if he did, they would know it by now or at least found her. 

do you think his mother helped him cover this up?  she had no car?  did she help him drag her off somewhere?  did they call someone else with a car to take her and get rid of her?  who would do that?  trust a kid not to tell it if he got caught? 

I have no problem trying to help figure out how josh could have done this etc, but I must not be looking at it the same way some others are

[sunshine12]

DD-excellent post.  i think that obviously there are some concerns with jb... but i agree with you that i can't seem to come up with any plausible scenario in which he could have been responsible for lb's disappearance.

the only thing i can think of that could be possible (yet extremely far fetched) is if he dug a deep hole in the woods somewhere and had this planned out, which i find almost impossible.

if he was involved, i dont see how he did this alone. if it was a plot w/friends i dont see how someone hasn't talked yet, or how the rumor mill hasnt started on that.

i originally thought maybe an older teen was responsible for this, but the more time that has passed, and the more i have read on the research everyone has been doing on people, the more i think this was an adult aquantince.

[Tamikosmom]

DD

When all the underlying dynamic that has been revealed/alleged encompassing Josh Baum and ... then when you consider the argument that must of been so heated that it dictated  intervention by a neighbour ... logic dictates that Lindsey's brother should not be overlooked as a person of interest.  Hey ... maybe he has not been overlooked but ... the dots cannot be connected.  Think about the six searches conducted at the creek within days following Lindsey's disappearance.  Think about the recent search with the dogs.

I can only speculate on a possible scenerio and ... it involve a chance meeting between  Lindsey and a still angry Josh within two block from their home ... a chance meeting following Lindsey being observed at Fifteen and Maple by a neighbor driving to work.  Then somewhere off the beaten track ... things go out of hand. 

Consideing Melissa Baum passed a lie detector test ... I do not believe she has any first hand knowledge of wrongdoing.

I saw a photo of Josh Baum at the second vigil a few nights ago.  He is a good size.

Again ... I am not accusing but ... when what is known about Josh and Lindsey's relationship that appears to reach beyond normal sibling rivalry ... I believe that her brother should not be overlooked as a person of interest.

Janet

[doubledecker]

DD-excellent post.  i think that obviously there are some concerns with jb... but i agree with you that i can't seem to come up with any plausible scenario in which he could have been responsible for lb's disappearance.

the only thing i can think of that could be possible (yet extremely far fetched) is if he dug a deep hole in the woods somewhere and had this planned out, which i find almost impossible.

if he was involved, i dont see how he did this alone. if it was a plot w/friends i dont see how someone hasn't talked yet, or how the rumor mill hasnt started on that.

i originally thought maybe an older teen was responsible for this, but the more time that has passed, and the more i have read on the research everyone has been doing on people, the more i think this was an adult aquantince.

I'm more than willing to listen to the reasons and HOW he could have done this and they not find her, but I just can't figure out myself how come they have not found her if josh did this.  I can't figure out where he would have put her that they can't find her.  I know people can do things together and stay quiet. I am a firm believer in mulitple perps doing stuff together and no one every telling.  but who would have helped Josh.  that is the question.  I can't see how he could hide her by himself.

even if he had a place to hide her, he had to get her there.  if he dragged her on the ground the dogs would know.  if he got her in an empty house or building in town, wouldn't someone know it by now?  in this heat? 

does he have an older friend who drives who would help him?  who would that be.  does he know anyone THAT well who would do that?  where is the "friend" if there is one?  has he been known to hang out with anyone who is that good of friend of his? 

I just don't have any answers to help me with this.

[Tamikosmom]

Again ... it would be interesting to know what time Josh Baum got home on the evening of June 26, 2009.  Did he go home as the neighbour who intervened in the argument had instructed?  If he was at home with Mom prior to Lindsey's leaving the Kampen resident between 9:15 PM and 9:30 PM then this wannabe detective's speculation will go in another direction.

Janet

[doubledecker]

DD

When all the underlying dynamic that has been revealed/alleged encompassing Josh Baum and ... then when you consider the argument that must of been so heated that it dictated  intervention by a neighbour ... logic dictates that Lindsey's brother should not be overlooked as a person of interest.  Hey ... maybe he has not been overlooked but ... the dots cannot be connected.  Think about the six searches conducted at the creek within days following Lindsey's disappearance.  Think about the recent search with the dogs.

I can only speculate on a possible scenerio and ... it involve a chance meeting between  Lindsey and a still angry Josh within two block from their home ... a chance meeting following Lindsey being observed at Fifteen and Maple by a neighbor driving to work.  Then somewhere off the beaten track ... things go out of hand. 

Consideing Melissa Baum passed a lie detector test ... I do not believe she has any first hand knowledge of wrongdoing.

I saw a photo of Josh Baum at the second vigil a few nights ago.  He is a good size.

Again ... I am not accusing but ... when what is known about Josh and Lindsey's relationship that appears to reach beyond normal sibling rivalry ... I believe that her brother should not be overlooked as a person of interest.

Janet

oh I agree with you that he should not be overlooked at all.  and I believe he is big enough to do something to her either on purpose or accidently if they got into a physical altercation.  I have no problem believing any of those things.  My problem is where would he hide her?  how?  if he hid her someone where he could get her on foot, and if he really is responsible and did this, then she is close... and if she is that close, and he dragged her off somewhere, then they must not have looked very well AT ALL.  that is my problem with this theory... they can't find her where I think he would be able to put her.  either he would have to have help to get her out of there, or they didn't search that town at all.  "IF" he were to have done this. 

It's not even that I don't agree with you that he could have done this, he "could" have, but what did he do with her?  see what I mean?  do you have some ideas where he could have put her or gotten her there?  that is what I can't get past.  believe me, if I could make sense out of where he could have put her, I would be ragging about him just like everyone else.  well maybe not quite as bad, but I would certainly be over here by myself with some huge file of my own going through it. 

if you can tell me something where it seems believeable to me, or even half A$$ believeable to me where he could have hid her, I am more than ready to add him to my list.  the ONLY reason I personally can see that he did it and she is wherever he could have put her, is the police and search dogs are not looking at all.  because if josh dragged her somewhere they should have found her.