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Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 - 12/24/10
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Topic: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 - 12/24/10 (Read 233614 times)
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
islandmonkey
Monkey All Star
Offline
Posts: 10379
HaLeigh~you are loved and in God's loving arms
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #80 on:
December 18, 2010, 06:21:52 PM »
Quote from: Tracygirl on December 18, 2010, 06:16:40 PM
Is this the profile you were talking about IM?
“I think suspect zero in this case has a description, but that’s it. I pray I am wrong.
B
**It is a commonly used investigative term when there is no suspect but a profile.
B
**
Blink, can you please share suspect zero’s description/profile with us?
Prayers for Kyron
Opportunist Sexual Predator Pedophile- Highly organized offender, serial.
No kids of his own, possible divorce.
Possibly dated someone with kids in the area.
Skills or resources to go underground quickly and for sustained periods of time.
Able to function undetected in the community, but familiar enough to fit in.
No electronic footprint, but has masterful IT skills
Has had access to Skyline prior to 6/4/10 possibly through work, which I would guess is construction/electric/plumbing related.
Before you ask, yes, I believe Kyron ran into him in the “Cool Electric” Science Fair displays.
I have no idea how he might be connected to TH or RS, and neither does MCSO or they would have a suspect.
If he is profiling low risk kids (in his opinion) it would be his MO to have been around his victims and have a level of understanding of their family dynamic. In other words, he has assessed in advance
Imo, that is the missing link. I believe they have a physical description of him, thus the facial recognition portion of the cameras and the statement it was an isolated incident. That is the only way that statement does not sound irresponsible to me.
He will set off some people’s “satellites”, but with no obvious justification.
I think........LOL, I told you my brain was mush. It seemd longer when I first saw it, but it read that way yes.
Logged
"If two theories explain the facts equally well then the simpler theory is to be preferred''
[
Tracygirl
Monkey All Star Jr.
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Posts: 6539
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #81 on:
December 18, 2010, 06:22:22 PM »
Quote from: islandmonkey on December 18, 2010, 06:04:05 PM
Quote from: neighbor on December 18, 2010, 05:52:00 PM
Quote from: islandmonkey on December 18, 2010, 05:43:51 PM
Quote from: Tracygirl on December 18, 2010, 05:41:51 PM
Wait Neighbor hold the phone! You are in that area right? The school has canceled all events that parents attend? what is the reason for that? hmm interesting.
THUD........ok, that piques my interest, I will be trying to call my friend from Eugene with family in Portland
I am very close to the school, but I should have used the word "missing" instead of "canceled". Traditional events during the school year were never scheduled. The only event was a
"no, go, yell, tell"
class in the evening. Pumking carving traditionally was at school, but this year it was hosted at a farm on SI. Also the Christmas carols were notably absent this year.
I get it, still interesting and I am glad to hear about the NO GO YELL TELL class, all kids should be armed in knowledge and trust gut instincts. It's so sad we have to balance arming our kids without scaring the he77 out of them, when I grew up my parents never thought anything about us going to school and being snatched and we played outside and roamed until dark. Wow, I long for the days for my kids but not going to happen......
We just had our Christmas program about 2 weeks ago and Thursday we had Christmas breakfast with our kids, and we had the prof of marine biology that teaches our kids on his off days from UWF there, and a few other special guest. I can't imagine having nothing, but if I thought it gave one more kid a fighting chance, I say go for it.
It is great they had the class but if the school believes Kyron went with his step mother, and it is not a snatch and go "event" then why would they have the class? Why would they not have the usual yearly events they have had in previous years? Am I thinking of this wrong?
Logged
cw618
Monkey Junky
Offline
Posts: 4984
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #82 on:
December 18, 2010, 06:23:55 PM »
Quote from: neighbor on December 18, 2010, 05:52:00 PM
Quote from: islandmonkey on December 18, 2010, 05:43:51 PM
Quote from: Tracygirl on December 18, 2010, 05:41:51 PM
Wait Neighbor hold the phone! You are in that area right? The school has canceled all events that parents attend? what is the reason for that? hmm interesting.
THUD........ok, that piques my interest, I will be trying to call my friend from Eugene with family in Portland
I am very close to the school, but I should have used the word "missing" instead of "canceled". Traditional events during the school year were never scheduled. The only event was a "no, go, yell, tell" class in the evening. Pumking carving traditionally was at school, but this year it was hosted at a farm on SI. Also the Christmas carols were notably absent this year.
hi neighbor, so what about basketb,footb and other activities, and did the school pass mail out a formal announcement of
this decision
,
Logged
goodmorn,goodnite, got to go, as always its been wonderful, talking with you, and most of all have a great day, and dont forget to smile
Fanny Mae
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Posts: 16655
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #83 on:
December 18, 2010, 06:25:49 PM »
ISLALND,
Blonde posted this one. Is this the one you were talking about?
Posts: 2265
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, PORTLAND, OR #37 12/5/10 -
« Reply #938 on: December 18, 2010, 10:26:31 AM »
Quote from: Blonde on December 17, 2010, 04:38:30 PM
Pedophiles Can Be Anyone:
Pedophiles can be anyone -- old or young, rich or poor, educated or uneducated, non-professional or professional, and of any race. However, pedophiles often demonstrate similar characteristics, but these are merely indicators and it should not be assumed that individuals with these characteristics are pedophiles. But knowledge of these characteristics coupled with questionable behavior can be used as an alert that someone may be a pedophile.
Characteristics of a Pedophile :
Often the pedophile is male and over 30 years of age.
Single or with few friends in his age group.
If married, the relationship is more "companion" based with no sexual relations.
He is often vague about time gaps in employment which may indicate a loss in employment for questionable reasons or possible past incarceration.
Pedophiles Like Child-like Activities:
He is often fascinated with children and child activities appearing to prefer those activities to adult oriented activities.
He will often refer to children in pure or angelic terms using descriptives like innocent, heavenly, divine, pure, and other words that describe children but seem inappropriate and exaggerated.
He has hobbies that are child-like such as collecting popular expensive toys, keeping reptiles or exotic pets, or building plane and car models.
Pedophiles Often Prefer Children Close to Puberty:
Pedophiles often have a specific age of child they target. Some prefer younger children, some older.
Often his environment or a special room will be decorated in child-like decor and will appeal to the age and sex of the child he is trying to entice.
Many pedophiles often prefer children close to puberty who are sexually inexperienced, but curious about sex.
Pedophiles Work Around Children:
The pedophile will often be employed in a position that involves daily contact with children. If not employed, he will put himself in a position to do volunteer work with children, often in a supervisory capacity such as sports coaching, contact sport instruction, unsupervised tutoring or a position where he has the opportunity to spend unsupervised time with a child.
The Target Child:
The pedophile often seeks out shy, handicapped, and withdrawn children, or those who come from troubled homes or under privileged homes. He then showers them with attention, gifts, taunting them with trips to desirable places like amusement parks, zoo's, concerts, the beach and other such places.
Manipulation of the Innocent:
Pedophiles work to master their manipulative skills and often unleash them on troubled children by first becoming their friend, building the the child's self esteem. They may refer to the child as special or mature, appealing to their need to be heard and understood then entice them with adult type activities that are often sexual in content such as x-rated movies or pictures. They offer them alcohol or drugs to hamper their ability to resist activities or recall events that occurred.
Stockholm Syndrome :
It is not unusual for the child to develop feelings for the predator and desire their approval and continued acceptance. They will compromise their innate ability to decipher good and bad behavior, ultimately justifying the criminal's bad behavior out of sympathy and concern for the adults welfare. This is often compared to Stockholm Syndrome - when victims become attached emotionally to their captors.
The Single Parent:
Many times pedophiles will develop a close relationship with a single parent in order to get close to their children. Once inside the home, they have many opportunities to manipulate the children -- using guilt, fear, and love to confuse the child. If the child's parent works, it offers the pedophile the private time needed to abuse the child.
Fighting Back:
Pedophiles work hard at stalking their targets and will patiently work to develop relationships with them. It is not uncommon for them to be developing a long list of potential victims at any one time. Many of them believe that what they are doing is not wrong and that having sex with a child is actually "healthy" for the child.
Almost all pedophiles have a collection of pronography, which they protect at all costs. Many of them also collect "souvenirs" from their victims. They rarely discard either their porn or collections for any reason.
One factor that works against the pedophile is that eventually the children will grow up and recall the events that occurred. Often pedophiles are not brought to justice until such time occurs and victims are angered by being victimized and want to protect other children from the same consequences.
Laws such as Megan's Law - a federal law passed in 1996 that authorizes local law enforcement agencies to notify the public about convicted sex offenders living, working or visiting their communities, have helped expose the pedophile and allows parents to better protect their children.
IMO it's like their JOB and they are dam good at looking for that one second no one is looking
http://crime.about.com/od/sex/p/pedophile.htm
http://scaredmonkeys.net/index.php?topic=9000.920
Logged
Jesus loves the little children, all the children in the world.
Red and yellow, black and white, they are precious in his sight. Jesus loves the little children of the world.
Words: C. Herbert Woolston (1856-1927) Music: George F. Root (1820-1895)
Tracygirl
Monkey All Star Jr.
Offline
Posts: 6539
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #84 on:
December 18, 2010, 06:27:05 PM »
Quote from: islandmonkey on December 18, 2010, 06:21:52 PM
Quote from: Tracygirl on December 18, 2010, 06:16:40 PM
Is this the profile you were talking about IM?
“I think suspect zero in this case has a description, but that’s it. I pray I am wrong.
B
**It is a commonly used investigative term when there is no suspect but a profile.
B
**
Blink, can you please share suspect zero’s description/profile with us?
Prayers for Kyron
Opportunist Sexual Predator Pedophile- Highly organized offender, serial.
No kids of his own, possible divorce.
Possibly dated someone with kids in the area.
Skills or resources to go underground quickly and for sustained periods of time.
Able to function undetected in the community, but familiar enough to fit in.
No electronic footprint, but has masterful IT skills
Has had access to Skyline prior to 6/4/10 possibly through work, which I would guess is construction/electric/plumbing related.
Before you ask, yes, I believe Kyron ran into him in the “Cool Electric” Science Fair displays.
I have no idea how he might be connected to TH or RS, and neither does MCSO or they would have a suspect.
If he is profiling low risk kids (in his opinion) it would be his MO to have been around his victims and have a level of understanding of their family dynamic. In other words, he has assessed in advance
Imo, that is the missing link. I believe they have a physical description of him, thus the facial recognition portion of the cameras and the statement it was an isolated incident. That is the only way that statement does not sound irresponsible to me.
He will set off some people’s “satellites”, but with no obvious justification.
I think........LOL, I told you my brain was mush. It seemd longer when I first saw it, but it read that way yes.
her posts was longer because she included a personal story that I didn't copy due to it not really being a part of the profile although interesting!
What are your thoughts on this profile?
Logged
islandmonkey
Monkey All Star
Offline
Posts: 10379
HaLeigh~you are loved and in God's loving arms
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #85 on:
December 18, 2010, 06:27:51 PM »
Quote from: Fanny Mae on December 18, 2010, 06:13:12 PM
Background checks should be absolutely done on volunteers at school. I am all for it. It may weed out some of the "bad apples." It may not catch all of them, but it is better than nothing. I am sure many of the parents wouldn't volunteer for anything because they had an embarrassing record, such as a bad check charge at one time or something of that nature
.
All this talk about volunteers being under suspicion reminds me of the searchers for TES. Volunteer, and you are drug into a murder case. If you happened to be there that day and your name is on the list, you may be discussed on the blogs and threads, innocent or not. I have a feeling it throws ice water on others that want to volunteer. Not that I don't think there should be a discussion. Some would just hate to have been there that day and their personal life was discussed and their background was put out there. Just sayin'. I realize we are talking about a little boy being missing or worse.
So I do believe everything possible should be done. I am just saying that most of us would just be glad it wasn't us there that day and see our names and family's being posted on the list being made public. It's a conundrum.
JMO
It is sad, but ITA that all volunteers. I just know sick SO's do try to be around kids, and so many have never been caught so it doesn't ever catch all, but I still prefer it over no check. I guess my issue is 500+ ppl were there, and I am not sure if that's maintenance, trash p/u etc., so it leaves it leave open so many possibilities, although my I have 2 theories, I sure would like to weed one out
Logged
"If two theories explain the facts equally well then the simpler theory is to be preferred''
[
islandmonkey
Monkey All Star
Offline
Posts: 10379
HaLeigh~you are loved and in God's loving arms
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #86 on:
December 18, 2010, 06:35:14 PM »
Quote from: Fanny Mae on December 18, 2010, 06:25:49 PM
ISLALND,
Blonde posted this one. Is this the one you were talking about?
Posts: 2265
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, PORTLAND, OR #37 12/5/10 -
« Reply #938 on: December 18, 2010, 10:26:31 AM »
Quote from: Blonde on December 17, 2010, 04:38:30 PM
Pedophiles Can Be Anyone:
Pedophiles can be anyone -- old or young, rich or poor, educated or uneducated, non-professional or professional, and of any race. However, pedophiles often demonstrate similar characteristics, but these are merely indicators and it should not be assumed that individuals with these characteristics are pedophiles. But knowledge of these characteristics coupled with questionable behavior can be used as an alert that someone may be a pedophile.
Characteristics of a Pedophile :
Often the pedophile is male and over 30 years of age.
Single or with few friends in his age group.
If married, the relationship is more "companion" based with no sexual relations.
He is often vague about time gaps in employment which may indicate a loss in employment for questionable reasons or possible past incarceration.
Pedophiles Like Child-like Activities:
He is often fascinated with children and child activities appearing to prefer those activities to adult oriented activities.
He will often refer to children in pure or angelic terms using descriptives like innocent, heavenly, divine, pure, and other words that describe children but seem inappropriate and exaggerated.
He has hobbies that are child-like such as collecting popular expensive toys, keeping reptiles or exotic pets, or building plane and car models.
Pedophiles Often Prefer Children Close to Puberty:
Pedophiles often have a specific age of child they target. Some prefer younger children, some older.
Often his environment or a special room will be decorated in child-like decor and will appeal to the age and sex of the child he is trying to entice.
Many pedophiles often prefer children close to puberty who are sexually inexperienced, but curious about sex.
Pedophiles Work Around Children:
The pedophile will often be employed in a position that involves daily contact with children. If not employed, he will put himself in a position to do volunteer work with children, often in a supervisory capacity such as sports coaching, contact sport instruction, unsupervised tutoring or a position where he has the opportunity to spend unsupervised time with a child.
The Target Child:
The pedophile often seeks out shy, handicapped, and withdrawn children, or those who come from troubled homes or under privileged homes. He then showers them with attention, gifts, taunting them with trips to desirable places like amusement parks, zoo's, concerts, the beach and other such places.
Manipulation of the Innocent:
Pedophiles work to master their manipulative skills and often unleash them on troubled children by first becoming their friend, building the the child's self esteem. They may refer to the child as special or mature, appealing to their need to be heard and understood then entice them with adult type activities that are often sexual in content such as x-rated movies or pictures. They offer them alcohol or drugs to hamper their ability to resist activities or recall events that occurred.
Stockholm Syndrome :
It is not unusual for the child to develop feelings for the predator and desire their approval and continued acceptance. They will compromise their innate ability to decipher good and bad behavior, ultimately justifying the criminal's bad behavior out of sympathy and concern for the adults welfare. This is often compared to Stockholm Syndrome - when victims become attached emotionally to their captors.
The Single Parent:
Many times pedophiles will develop a close relationship with a single parent in order to get close to their children. Once inside the home, they have many opportunities to manipulate the children -- using guilt, fear, and love to confuse the child. If the child's parent works, it offers the pedophile the private time needed to abuse the child.
Fighting Back:
Pedophiles work hard at stalking their targets and will patiently work to develop relationships with them. It is not uncommon for them to be developing a long list of potential victims at any one time. Many of them believe that what they are doing is not wrong and that having sex with a child is actually "healthy" for the child.
Almost all pedophiles have a collection of pronography, which they protect at all costs. Many of them also collect "souvenirs" from their victims. They rarely discard either their porn or collections for any reason.
One factor that works against the pedophile is that eventually the children will grow up and recall the events that occurred. Often pedophiles are not brought to justice until such time occurs and victims are angered by being victimized and want to protect other children from the same consequences.
Laws such as Megan's Law - a federal law passed in 1996 that authorizes local law enforcement agencies to notify the public about convicted sex offenders living, working or visiting their communities, have helped expose the pedophile and allows parents to better protect their children.
IMO it's like their JOB and they are dam good at looking for that one second no one is looking
http://crime.about.com/od/sex/p/pedophile.htm
http://scaredmonkeys.net/index.php?topic=9000.920
No, but that one is SPOT ON isn't it????? I was talking about the specific profile for this perp, and wondering if it was Blinks or the FBI's. How are you Ms Fanny and did you see the memorial for Natalie and Jonathon is going to be in Mobile
Logged
"If two theories explain the facts equally well then the simpler theory is to be preferred''
[
Tracygirl
Monkey All Star Jr.
Offline
Posts: 6539
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #87 on:
December 18, 2010, 06:35:33 PM »
A school must be like Disneyland to these freaks. Kids of all ages being told to listen and do what an adult tells them. It is like hitting the jackpot! How easy it must be to gain entry to a school. Just volunteer and be good, gain the trust of children, ask a few questions here and there and they can learn just about anything about them from home life, to sports they play.
Logged
Fanny Mae
Monkey Mega Star
Offline
Posts: 16655
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #88 on:
December 18, 2010, 06:43:22 PM »
Yes
ISLAND,
I did. If I still was there I would go with you. BTW, the memorial is going to be in the same chapel my mother's burial service was done. She is buried in that cemetery there along with my daddy.
Logged
Jesus loves the little children, all the children in the world.
Red and yellow, black and white, they are precious in his sight. Jesus loves the little children of the world.
Words: C. Herbert Woolston (1856-1927) Music: George F. Root (1820-1895)
cw618
Monkey Junky
Offline
Posts: 4984
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #89 on:
December 18, 2010, 06:45:08 PM »
Quote from: neighbor on December 18, 2010, 05:52:00 PM
Quote from: islandmonkey on December 18, 2010, 05:43:51 PM
Quote from: Tracygirl on December 18, 2010, 05:41:51 PM
Wait Neighbor hold the phone! You are in that area right? The school has canceled all events that parents attend? what is the reason for that? hmm interesting.
THUD........ok, that piques my interest, I will be trying to call my friend from Eugene with family in Portland
I am very close to the school, but I should have used the word "missing" instead of "canceled". Traditional events during the school year were never scheduled. The only event was a "no, go, yell, tell" class in the evening. Pumking carving traditionally was at school, but this year it was hosted at a farm on SI. Also the Christmas carols were notably absent this year.
neighbor, is it your feeling opinion, that the school or the parents or a combo of, figured out maybe there is another perp besides TH
is why the programs are missing and not scheduled, and island see if your connections in port think the same way
Logged
goodmorn,goodnite, got to go, as always its been wonderful, talking with you, and most of all have a great day, and dont forget to smile
Tracygirl
Monkey All Star Jr.
Offline
Posts: 6539
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #90 on:
December 18, 2010, 06:50:16 PM »
This is a comment blink made to a poster on her site. Thought it was an interesting take on things.
My thanks Tori and welcome.
Excellent question. No, just because I classify suspect zero as an opportunist does not mean this was not premeditated, in fact, I absolutely think it was.
I envision “zero” walking the halls when he thinks nobody is paying attention and counting the steps from classroom to door, to steps to bathroom and stopping and restarting his stop watch. He has watched each teacher, each classroom, and knows how to get in and out of every entrance and exit. The Science Fair, open to all, provided him the opportunity.
Wrt to changing directions, etc, in our work, and as I have been taught, and try to teach, the number one thing you MUST be willing to do as an investigative analyst is to be willing to scrap your whole case and start over, without angst.
The second you have something which conflicts or challenges or changes the scope of your investigation you must adapt without ownership of your previous work or you will be investigation to PROVE you were right. That is not investigation that is research. Big difference.
I cannot tell you how many times we have had to do that after hundreds of hours of work, that is the nature of the beast.
The second I become closed off to reasonable non-excludable theory, I am dead in the water.
B
Logged
no rose colored glasses
Monkey Mega Star
Offline
Posts: 45869
Zoe you will always be in my heart and soul
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #91 on:
December 18, 2010, 06:57:50 PM »
Quote from: Tracygirl on December 18, 2010, 06:50:16 PM
This is a comment blink made to a poster on her site. Thought it was an interesting take on things.
My thanks Tori and welcome.
Excellent question. No, just because I classify suspect zero as an opportunist does not mean this was not premeditated, in fact, I absolutely think it was.
I envision “zero” walking the halls when he thinks nobody is paying attention and counting the steps from classroom to door, to steps to bathroom and stopping and restarting his stop watch. He has watched each teacher, each classroom, and knows how to get in and out of every entrance and exit. The Science Fair, open to all, provided him the opportunity.
Wrt to changing directions, etc, in our work, and as I have been taught, and try to teach, the number one thing you MUST be willing to do as an investigative analyst is to be willing to scrap your whole case and start over, without angst.
The second you have something which conflicts or challenges or changes the scope of your investigation you must adapt without ownership of your previous work or you will be investigation to PROVE you were right. That is not investigation that is research. Big difference.
I cannot tell you how many times we have had to do that after hundreds of hours of work, that is the nature of the beast.
The second I become closed off to reasonable non-excludable theory, I am dead in the water.
B
Thank-you, so I'm assuming that after all this time, Blink and the others that investigate with her, now believe that a pedophile took Kyron? From all the different posts on here from her site recently that is what it sure seems like.
Logged
Tracygirl
Monkey All Star Jr.
Offline
Posts: 6539
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #92 on:
December 18, 2010, 06:59:34 PM »
Get a load of this! copied from Blinks.
chefjagcc says:
December 18, 2010 at 12:48 pm
I was reluctant to post this information before, based on my understanding that this was not random. With new information, including the sz new profile i feel i should share. I live approximatly 1 hour away from Skyline Elementary. Her school is surrounded by woods much like Skyline. About 2 weeks ago my 2nd grader came home with a note in her backpack. It was from the principal and stated that all children had been kept in from recess because someone observed a man in the trees watching children play. All children were brought in and police notified. A search came up empty. I have not heard if the man was found or if he has returned. It just seems spooky and somewhat similar. If i hear more i will post it. Blink, if you or your researchers like, i could privatly post the name of the school and the principal.
Please do. Just mark the first line as private.
Kudos to the school for their actions after being alerted.
B
Logged
Tracygirl
Monkey All Star Jr.
Offline
Posts: 6539
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #93 on:
December 18, 2010, 07:00:57 PM »
Quote from: no rose colored glasses on December 18, 2010, 06:57:50 PM
Quote from: Tracygirl on December 18, 2010, 06:50:16 PM
This is a comment blink made to a poster on her site. Thought it was an interesting take on things.
My thanks Tori and welcome.
Excellent question. No, just because I classify suspect zero as an opportunist does not mean this was not premeditated, in fact, I absolutely think it was.
I envision “zero” walking the halls when he thinks nobody is paying attention and counting the steps from classroom to door, to steps to bathroom and stopping and restarting his stop watch. He has watched each teacher, each classroom, and knows how to get in and out of every entrance and exit. The Science Fair, open to all, provided him the opportunity.
Wrt to changing directions, etc, in our work, and as I have been taught, and try to teach, the number one thing you MUST be willing to do as an investigative analyst is to be willing to scrap your whole case and start over, without angst.
The second you have something which conflicts or challenges or changes the scope of your investigation you must adapt without ownership of your previous work or you will be investigation to PROVE you were right. That is not investigation that is research. Big difference.
I cannot tell you how many times we have had to do that after hundreds of hours of work, that is the nature of the beast.
The second I become closed off to reasonable non-excludable theory, I am dead in the water.
B
Thank-you, so I'm assuming that after all this time, Blink and the others that investigate with her, now believe that a pedophile took Kyron? From all the different posts on here from her site recently that is what it sure seems like.
I believe she is open to that idea as well as Terri working with a pedo
Logged
islandmonkey
Monkey All Star
Offline
Posts: 10379
HaLeigh~you are loved and in God's loving arms
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #94 on:
December 18, 2010, 07:01:46 PM »
Quote from: Tracygirl on December 18, 2010, 06:27:05 PM
Quote from: islandmonkey on December 18, 2010, 06:21:52 PM
Quote from: Tracygirl on December 18, 2010, 06:16:40 PM
Is this the profile you were talking about IM?
“I think suspect zero in this case has a description, but that’s it. I pray I am wrong.
B
**It is a commonly used investigative term when there is no suspect but a profile.
B
**
Blink, can you please share suspect zero’s description/profile with us?
Prayers for Kyron
Opportunist Sexual Predator Pedophile- Highly organized offender, serial.
No kids of his own, possible divorce.
Possibly dated someone with kids in the area.
Skills or resources to go underground quickly and for sustained periods of time.
Able to function undetected in the community, but familiar enough to fit in.
No electronic footprint, but has masterful IT skills
Has had access to Skyline prior to 6/4/10 possibly through work, which I would guess is construction/electric/plumbing related.
Before you ask, yes, I believe Kyron ran into him in the “Cool Electric” Science Fair displays.
I have no idea how he might be connected to TH or RS, and neither does MCSO or they would have a suspect.
If he is profiling low risk kids (in his opinion) it would be his MO to have been around his victims and have a level of understanding of their family dynamic. In other words, he has assessed in advance
Imo, that is the missing link. I believe they have a physical description of him, thus the facial recognition portion of the cameras and the statement it was an isolated incident. That is the only way that statement does not sound irresponsible to me.
He will set off some people’s “satellites”, but with no obvious justification.
I think........LOL, I told you my brain was mush. It seemd longer when I first saw it, but it read that way yes.
her posts was longer because she included a personal story that I didn't copy due to it not really being a part of the profile although interesting!
What are your thoughts on this profile?
Ok, thanks
I tend to agree, but then again I am not an FBI profiler......just feel something is off and always has been, and more than just Terri IMO
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"If two theories explain the facts equally well then the simpler theory is to be preferred''
[
cw618
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Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #95 on:
December 18, 2010, 07:02:53 PM »
What are your thoughts on this profile? BBM
http://scaredmonkeys.net/index.php?topic=9068.msg1278077#msg1278077
Possibly dated someone with kids in the area.
maybe know someone in the area with kids and is introduced to others
with kids, and one of those kids fits his type
----------
to function undetected in the community, but familiar enough to fit in.
travels for his job, unnoticed
--------
No electronic footprint, but has masterful IT skills
intel is in the area, and techs travel
-------
my Q is were there electronic displays as well as electric displays 6/4/10
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goodmorn,goodnite, got to go, as always its been wonderful, talking with you, and most of all have a great day, and dont forget to smile
islandmonkey
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HaLeigh~you are loved and in God's loving arms
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #96 on:
December 18, 2010, 07:12:19 PM »
Quote from: Fanny Mae on December 18, 2010, 06:43:22 PM
Yes
ISLAND,
I did. If I still was there I would go with you. BTW, the memorial is going to be in the same chapel my mother's burial service was done. She is buried in that cemetery there along with my daddy.
Sorry to be O/T....but WOW, that makes me feel like there was a reason for that chapel to have been picked. I am still scared to go since I will bawl, but knew when I heard it, I needed to for some reason. One of those "I can't explain" feeling if you know what I mean.
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"If two theories explain the facts equally well then the simpler theory is to be preferred''
[
no rose colored glasses
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Zoe you will always be in my heart and soul
Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #97 on:
December 18, 2010, 07:15:56 PM »
Quote from: Tracygirl on December 18, 2010, 06:59:34 PM
Get a load of this! copied from Blinks.
chefjagcc says:
December 18, 2010 at 12:48 pm
I was reluctant to post this information before, based on my understanding that this was not random. With new information, including the sz new profile i feel i should share. I live approximatly 1 hour away from Skyline Elementary. Her school is surrounded by woods much like Skyline. About 2 weeks ago my 2nd grader came home with a note in her backpack. It was from the principal and stated that all children had been kept in from recess because someone observed a man in the trees watching children play. All children were brought in and police notified. A search came up empty. I have not heard if the man was found or if he has returned. It just seems spooky and somewhat similar. If i hear more i will post it. Blink, if you or your researchers like, i could privatly post the name of the school and the principal.
Please do. Just mark the first line as private.
Kudos to the school for their actions after being alerted.
B
How disturbing, and again all that woods, and who knows who is lurking in the woods? So Blink is open to a pedophile taking Kyron or Terri working with a pedophile. Oh and I agree something has been off on this from the beginning.
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islandmonkey
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Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #98 on:
December 18, 2010, 07:18:13 PM »
Quote from: Tracygirl on December 18, 2010, 06:59:34 PM
Get a load of this! copied from Blinks.
chefjagcc says:
December 18, 2010 at 12:48 pm
I was reluctant to post this information before, based on my understanding that this was not random. With new information, including the sz new profile i feel i should share. I live approximatly 1 hour away from Skyline Elementary. Her school is surrounded by woods much like Skyline. About 2 weeks ago my 2nd grader came home with a note in her backpack. It was from the principal and stated that all children had been kept in from recess because someone observed a man in the trees watching children play. All children were brought in and police notified. A search came up empty. I have not heard if the man was found or if he has returned. It just seems spooky and somewhat similar. If i hear more i will post it. Blink, if you or your researchers like, i could privatly post the name of the school and the principal.
Please do. Just mark the first line as private.
Kudos to the school for their actions after being alerted.
B
Again, it's the net and anyone can say anything they choose, but I don't see this as far fetched by any stretch...the entire school gave me the creeps, the high grass/weeds by one set of steps for one reason, I'd be worrid about snakes it was so high but it also could provide cover. I am sure Blink will try to vet, and a note going home should be somewhat easy to find out about (unless LE asked them not to tell), I sure wish my friend from that area had friends who had younger kids. So much easier since they are more aware/alert to everything, I am still going to ask her about a few of the topics we discussed the past few days and see what she can find out (when I find her of course
)
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Scandi
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Re: Kyron Horman, 7 years old, Portland OR #38 12/18/10 -
«
Reply #99 on:
December 18, 2010, 07:38:29 PM »
Quote from: cw618 on December 18, 2010, 04:22:40 PM
Quote
islandmonkey
am of the opinion if it's an SO perp, than they are actually known to the school or families in some capacity, but have never been caught. IIRC some statistics show an offender will molest ~150-200 times before they are caught
that's what i meant, just didnt say it as concise as you
thanks
Hi Cw, It could also be this 'suspect zero' had a child at Skyline. It would fit Blink's theory.
I often thought Terri took that photo of Kyron and his project purposefully with the man and little girl in the background to cast dispersions elsewhere if LE ever started looking at her. It does create doubt, especially when she later mentions the last she saw Kyron he was with some odd man and a couple of children.
I do agree with some here there is also the possibility Terri knew a pedo {even if he had never been caught before}, and used this person to full advantage in carrying out her plan to rid Kyron from her life. There are just too many quirky things we've read about her including Kyron's pleading to stay with Desiree.
And that first Presser. I often reflect on the guilty look she had on her face. It was like 'Who, me? Gulp' and she wanted to disappear. IMO
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