Lively Case Discussion #641 6/16 - 6/19/2007

[San]

Just found this article regarding Montego Bay Jamaica.  (other reports say the tourists were attacked with guns and machetes.  )


http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/html/20070613T230000-0500_124318_OBS_POLICE_KILL_SUSPECT_IN_TOURIST_ROBBERY.asp

I saw something about this last week on the news.

I have no desire to see any of these islands.  There are plenty of beaches in the U.S.

I had the same conversation with some of the friends we've traveled with to islands in the past.  Some agree and others are set on the tropical atmosphere. I'm happy on the Jersey shore, if nothing else is possible.  I agree.

The Jersey Shore is just fine for me 2NJSons.  Plus if there is a problem at least we are here in our country unlike how other governments treat our people.  We lose our rights when we travel outside of the U.S.

[bleachedblack]

Claudia Kirshhoch disappeared from Jamaica, her poor family was another
family that got railroaded in the same way Natalee's did.

[Mere]

Pretty soon the only cruise you will be able to take will be from one US port to another....!  and I am not saying that ports and port cities are always safe...but at least you are in your own country....where you should be able to get good information on crime in the area....either before leaving for the cruise or from the cruise staff before disembarking....!

This robbery tells us that going in groups does not always make us safe...!

[San]

Pretty soon the only cruise you will be able to take will be from one US port to another....!  and I am not saying that ports and port cities are always safe...but at least you are in your own country....where you should be able to get good information on crime in the area....either before leaving for the cruise or from the cruise staff before disembarking....!

This robbery tells us that going in groups does not always make us safe...!

I agree Mere.

These islands are not safe plain and simple.

[Mere]

Pretty soon the only cruise you will be able to take will be from one US port to another....!  and I am not saying that ports and port cities are always safe...but at least you are in your own country....where you should be able to get good information on crime in the area....either before leaving for the cruise or from the cruise staff before disembarking....!

This robbery tells us that going in groups does not always make us safe...!

I agree Mere.

These islands are not safe plain and simple.

We have learned a lot in the past two years....

[San]

Pretty soon the only cruise you will be able to take will be from one US port to another....!  and I am not saying that ports and port cities are always safe...but at least you are in your own country....where you should be able to get good information on crime in the area....either before leaving for the cruise or from the cruise staff before disembarking....!

This robbery tells us that going in groups does not always make us safe...!

I agree Mere.

These islands are not safe plain and simple.

We have learned a lot in the past two years....

This is true Mere.  Aruba has opened our eyes.  Goes to show you that even the Government in Aruba hate the Americans.  JMO.

[San]

O/T - I'm going on record and saying that the boyfriend or what ever the hell he is in relation to Jessie Davis is the one who killed her.

[truthseeker2]

Found this at Scrux - posted by a new member who claims to be from the NL - it's a very detailed and thought out synopsis of what could have happened:

FierlJepper
Joined: 09 Jun 2007
Posts: 1
Location: Netherlands
 Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2007 4:47 am    Post subject: A "Satish & Joran colluded, Deepak didn't know"

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Hi,

Just like many here, I’m intrigued by the Holloway case. I recently watched the interview with Joran on the Jensen show last Friday June 8th. I then decided to start reading more about this case and almost drowned in the publicly available factual and speculative data.

For me it’s very obvious that Joran knows more, not only because he has changed his story so often, but also due to his body language during the interviews, esp. when the questions like “so, what happened at the beach” are posed to him. In the Jensen show he came across to me as a pathological liar.

I’ve now read the mind-boggling, however also sometimes conflicting, material from many different sites and developed a (speculative) hypothesis, that however does match the available evidence, provides an explanation for the persisting lies of the three boys and also is in-line with the puzzling conversation between the three suspects that was secretly recorded in a the police car.

My hypothesis in a nutshell and its rationales:

1. Joran apparently has a fantasy around backseat car-sex and/or group (MMF) sex. Data points for this are:
* He visited the porn-site “backseatbangers” after he returned home in the morning May 30th (he was using the “van der Sloot”-computer. I assume they ran XP and had made log-in accounts for each family member. I suspect therefore that Joran had bookmarked this site under favorites (this can be verified, if they still have the hard disk image file).
* His previous involvement with a girl named Karen. Joran had sex with Karen in his apartment. This was in the presence of a guy named Chato who together with Joran proposed group sex. Karen refused and Chato left the room (story has been verified).

2. Since Joran is “not against” group sex and he doesn’t truly fancy Natalee (apparently he was more interested in her girlfriend) and also given the state of the sexual interactions on the backseat that occurred during their ride to the lighthouse, he perceives Natalee as “willing”. Joran then thinks of realizing his fantasy and develops the idea to “share” her with Satish (Deepak is too decent and wouldn’t bite). However, there is not a single moment when Joran and Satish are alone to test Satish buy-in or to collude with him to get Deepak out of the way. Except for one crucial moment and that is when Deepak leaves the car to relief himself at the parking lot near the lighthouse. Although Deepak has stated that everybody is awake, this is the reason why neither Joran nor Satish have ever mentioned this in their statements. For them this is an important event and also the reason why Joran has stated they didn’t go to the lighthouse at all (although he did so in his first statement). He very well knows that this is a crucial piece of information and he hoped that Satish would join him in that lie. However he forgot that Satish had to follow Deepak’s story, who does tell the truth. When Deepak left the car, Joran and Satish probably agreed in Dutch or Papiamento (which Natalee couldn’t understand) that Satish would immediately return to the beach (“come to the Fishermen’s huts”) after he has arrived home with Deepak.

3. When they approach the Marriott Hotel. Joran is the one who suddenly tells Deepak to turn right just before the Marriott and to drop him and Natalee off at the beach. They got out and the boys drove off. The fact that Joran took off his shoes when they walked to the beach and waded in the sea, sounds logically to me. However, Joran also needed to convince Natalee to walk north for his planned encounter with Satish near the Fishermen’s huts. Leaving both their shoes at the beach is of course making Natalee less suspicious. They then walk north but Natalee starts to protest more and more and wants to just sit at the beach. Joran has made several statements that he actually carried Natalee for a while. Again this supports the story that he needed to get her to the fishermen’s hut. I postulate that Joran was later indeed picked up by Satish and also dropped off at his house, so he couldn’t have gone back for his shoes (which I assume were taken from the beach by the tide and then disappeared). Joran consistently claims that he didn’t have sex with her on the beach, since he didn’t have a condom with him. I find this hard to believe for a guy like him (he repeated this story in the Jensen show and also suddenly stated that she had given him a bj). I actually infer that he was consciously holding of intercourse with Natalee since he wanted to wait for Satish to return for some MMF group sex. Satish indeed returned to the beach around 2:15 (15 to 20 minute drive from the Kalpoe home to the Palm beach area). Joran suddenly heard the car engine of Satish approaching and then suddenly realizes himself that he hadn’t made a phone call yet with a request for a pick up. This could of course make Natalee very suspicious. That’s why he uses the excuse that he has to make a call near the Fishermen’s huts “since it’s too windy on the beach”. In reality he meets Satish there and tells him to wait a short while before they pick up Natalee. Joran then also realizes that Deepak could be waiting for him to pick him up and decides to call him (at 2:26) to tell him not to bother and that he’s walking home. After that call he returns to Natalee and they both walk back to the car and get in (Joran, Satish in the front and Natalee “already” in the back seat). I read a statement that Joran said “we” went into the car. They drive off in the direction of the quiet and unpopulated area near the Racquet club (1-2min drive).

4. The “gardener” witness then did indeed see Deepak’s car around 2:30 on that dirt road near the Racquet club with Joran and Satish in the front seats and Natalee lying in the backseat. The gardeners claims to have seen three people, however describes and recognizes only the two in the front. He could see their faces in his headlights and also reports that one of them immediately covers his face with his hands and the man in the driver seat leaned backwards to avoid being recognized.

5. Somewhere between 2:30 and 2:45, Joran and Satish have had group sex with Natalee in the backseat of Deepak’s car near the Racquet club area between 2:30 and 2:45.They accidentally (unplanned) killed Natalee due to a lethal combination of dehydration and abundant alcohol usage. They panicked and instead of getting help they disposed of her body. Satish then dropped of Joran at or near his house (03:13) and drove home. They didn’t have much time to hide the body (approx. 20-25 minutes) and I postulate that the must have dispose it somewhere between the area of the Racquet club and Joran’s house.

6. Satish doesn’t have an alibi. Deepak could prove that he was on MSN at 2AM but Satish claims to have gone to sleep immediately after they arrived home around 1:50AM. However, both Deepak, his mother and Satish have made a statement that Satish overslept and missed school the next morning. He should have woken up around 10AM, which should have left him with a sufficient 8 hours of sleep (esp. at that age). Apparently he was very tired which could be an indication that he didn’t sleep that long at all. Also, the first thing Satish asks his brother Deepak when they’re both awake, is whether Joran has gotten home the night before (consistent data in both D and S statements). I’m surprised by this amazing degree of empathy for Joran.

7. Deepak is very protective of his brother Satish, which is one of the reasons why he joins Joran in the first lie about dropping off Natalee at the Holiday Inn. I therefore postulate that Deepak knows that Satish had gone out for a drive after they return, but is unaware of what really happened and persists in this lie not to induce more troubles for his brother (Deepak’s car makes quite some noise and I therefore don’t believe that Satish managed to sneak out silently with such a car). The brothers have never changed there story after the first lie, although ironically enough Joran fourth story about being picked up by Satish is in my hypothesis actually true…).

8. At the moment of the first MSN conversation 03:25.04, I postulate that Deepak is absolutely unaware of anything bad happening that evening. In particular when I read the content of the MSN dialogue between Joran and Deepak, which is incorrectly interpreted as a “conversation”. There isn’t actually a conversation at all. Deepak sees that Joran comes on-line (i.e. he signs on to MSN) which triggers him to write Joran the subsequent messages “Are you there”, “?”, “Anyway, glad to hear you’re home. Speak to you tomorrow. I’m going to sleep”, “Take care”. Then 8 minutes pass before Joran sends Deepak a reply (2 messages), but there is no response from Deepak. The content of Deepak’s messages makes me believe that he’s totally unaware of Joran’s nor Satish “evil” activities that night and most certainly hasn’t dropped of Joran at his house himself. However, since Deepak doesn’t answer anymore to Joran I suspect that Deepak heard Satish return and they have a conversation outside.

9. Now, why would Joran lie about passing his house on their way to the lighthouse? I postulate that is because he knew that Satish had dropped him off in Deepak’s car around 3:13 and wanted to provide both of them with an alibi in case the car was seen there. Deepak unfortunately tells the truth about the route to the lighthouse and Satish needs to join him in that story (since Deepak doesn’t know where Satish has gone that night).

10. Why does Deepak say that he logged off at 3AM, while there is evidence that he encountered in a MSN “conversation” with Joran at 03:25 ? I actually can't think of any good reason. This could be an error in the data reports.

11. The next day Joran played tennis at the Racquet club. He walked back from there to the Wyndham casino. He probably walked to the beach (via the dirt road), passed the fisherman’s hut and looked for his shoes.

12. Now back to the eavesdropped police car conversation between Deepak, Satish and Joran. It’s predominantly a conversation (fight) between Deepak and Joran about the unexpected side-effects that were induced by their various statements and mutual accusations (Freddy got arrested, Joran’s father got involved, the “choller” (drug dealer) incident, the fact that Satish has hit a girl with the car), however there’s not much about the case itself, except for the following lines:

* Joran very calmly to Deepak “you know what happened to the girl, if you don’t know then nothing happened to her”. IMO this reflects the fact that Joran is not sure whether Satish has told Deepak what really happened that night. It’s a provocative question to “test the waters”. In other words: “if Satish has told you what happened, then you know the terrible facts about what we did to her, if he hasn’t told you, then “why make any inferences about her”.

* Satish to Joran “About us, about us. They can find prove, but not about you”.
* Satish to Joran “With lies there is no proof”
IMO this means that the Kalpoe brothers can show some evidence that they are not guilty. Unfortunately this is only true for Deepak (on MSN at 2AM), but not for Satish (asleep, i.e. no alibi)

* Joran to the brothers “If they’ll find the girl then they will see the shit”. IMO this means he threatens Satish that if the body of Natalee is found, there will be evidence that leading towards Satish.

* Deepak to Joran “They’re going to give you 15 years if they find that girl”. IMO this means that Deepak is truly convinced that Joran had done something to Natalee at the beach, however he is still doesn’t suspect Satish was involved as well.

Here’s my timeline:
·01:00 CnC bar closes
·01:15 Joran, Satish and Deepak Kalpoe reconvene and leave Deepak’s car
·01:30 temporarily halted the car at the intersection next to the bus terminal (meet other students)
·01:40 Drop off Natalee north of Mariott
·02:00 Deepak logs on computer, Satish leaves in the car.
·02:15 Joran has managed to talk/carry Natalee to Fishermen’s hut and hears Satish car coming.
·02:17 Joran meets Satish and wait few minutes
·02:26 Joran calls Deepak from the huts and says he’ll walk home (and is near the McDonalds)
·02:30 Gardener sees Deepak’s car on dirt road near Racquet club.
·02:30-02:45 They have sex with Natalee in backseat and she accidentally dies.
·02:45-03:10 They get rid of the body and Joran is dropped off near his house by Satish
·02:46 Deepak sends sms from his computer (remember he didn’t have any call minutes on his cell phone left!!!) to Joran’s phone “Wait till you get home, miscall me”
·03:13 Joran is near or at his house. He answers the text message from Deepak directly to his cell phone: “Hey thanks Swa, sleep tight, I’m home. Are you on-line? I will see you tomorrow”.
·03:25 Joran gets on his computer and Deepak sees him coming on-line
·03:25.04 – 03:25.38 three messages sent by Deepak, no reply from Joran
·03:33.08 – 03:35.32 two messages sent by Joran, no reply from Deepak
·03:25 – 3:32 Satish arrives home. Deepak hears this and that’s why he doesn’t respond to Joran’s messages.
·03:35-04:30 Joran goes to Hotmail and visits the football/porn sites and download movies.
·08:00-02:45 Joran is at school
·12:00 Satish oversleeps and misses school that day
·13:30 Deepak wakes up
·(…)
·17:00 Paul drops off Joran at the Racquet club
·17:00-19:00 Tennis lesson for Joran
·19:15 Joran leaves Racquet club on foot to the casino
·00:00 – 02:00 Joran and Deepak meet again first in Radisson with friends and then alone in the Wyndham
·Etc.

Just another hypothesis to be falsified. I'm very open to any comments, critical feedback and/or additions.

Well, since is so quiet here today I thought I would bring this forward.  Klaas found this on Scrux and posted it yesterday.  I thought it was interesting.

If you are into the Simian posts...

It is true that one of them tried to off himself.
Posted Jun 22, 5:26 PM | Edit Comment | Delete Comment | Edit Post

I remember Deetch and I had discussed this once before and his impression back then was that Satish was the one who may have tried to take his own life.  Our discussion was not based on the Simian post, but something else Deetch knew about, but I can't remember what that was.  

Does Deetch still post here?

[2NJSons_Mom]

FOB & RU have brought over a post from BFN written by Robin & signed Dave & Robin.  Wasn't sure I should bring it here, but it says they no longer approve the boycott.

[2NJSons_Mom]

truthseeker2,

I am not certain, but I think Frank may be Deetch....

[truthseeker2]

truthseeker2,

I am not certain, but I think Frank may be Deetch....

yes, he is.

[San]

FOB & RU have brought over a post from BFN written by Robin & signed Dave & Robin.  Wasn't sure I should bring it here, but it says they no longer approve the boycott.

I read Robin's letter and I will continue to BOYCOTT ARUBA

[San]

truthseeker2,

I am not certain, but I think Frank may be Deetch....

yes, he is.

I believe Frank does still read here.

[2NJSons_Mom]

truthseeker2,

I am not certain, but I think Frank may be Deetch....

yes, he is.

He last posted here the beginning of June, so maybe he'll see your question.

[truthseeker2]

FOB & RU have brought over a post from BFN written by Robin & signed Dave & Robin.  Wasn't sure I should bring it here, but it says they no longer approve the boycott.

I read Robin's letter and I will continue to BOYCOTT ARUBA

Me too, San.  I have no desire to go there.  I'm sure there are innocent people on Aruba, but Natalee was innocent as well.  She did not deserve what happened to her there and the people who are "in charge" on Aruba did not have any interest in letting the truth be known from the very beginning.  Natalee's family was so persistent that Aruba could not hide anymore.  Now Aruba is suffering for that...

[San]

FOB & RU have brought over a post from BFN written by Robin & signed Dave & Robin.  Wasn't sure I should bring it here, but it says they no longer approve the boycott.

I read Robin's letter and I will continue to BOYCOTT ARUBA

Me too, San.  I have no desire to go there.  I'm sure there are innocent people on Aruba, but Natalee was innocent as well.  She did not deserve what happened to her there and the people who are "in charge" on Aruba did not have any interest in letting the truth be known from the very beginning.  Natalee's family was so persistent that Aruba could not hide anymore.  Now Aruba is suffering for that...

I agree truthseeker.

[msmarple]

FOB & RU have brought over a post from BFN written by Robin & signed Dave & Robin.  Wasn't sure I should bring it here, but it says they no longer approve the boycott.

I don't understand this. The boycott is the only instrument we have.

[San]

FOB & RU have brought over a post from BFN written by Robin & signed Dave & Robin.  Wasn't sure I should bring it here, but it says they no longer approve the boycott.

I don't understand this. The boycott is the only instrument we have.

I'm going to start mouthing off in a minute so I'm going to sign off until I calm down.

After everyones time and effort devoted to this cause I don't consider her word as set in stone.  It is too late to back off and I don't intend to.  I don't care who is suffering on that island because Natalee suffered more by the beasts who murdered her and are still roaming around free.

BOYCOTT ARUBA

[IndyDan]

FOB & RU have brought over a post from BFN written by Robin & signed Dave & Robin.  Wasn't sure I should bring it here, but it says they no longer approve the boycott.

Hmmm, is there a way to confirm that?  I find that hard to believe.

[IndyDan]

FOB & RU have brought over a post from BFN written by Robin & signed Dave & Robin.  Wasn't sure I should bring it here, but it says they no longer approve the boycott.

I don't understand this. The boycott is the only instrument we have.

I'm going to start mouthing off in a minute so I'm going to sign off until I calm down.

After everyones time and effort devoted to this cause I don't consider her word as set in stone.  It is too late to back off and I don't intend to.  I don't care who is suffering on that island because Natalee suffered more by the beasts who murdered her and are still roaming around free.

BOYCOTT ARUBA

I certainly don't either.  I've supported both boycott efforts so far and plan to support the one coming up in New Orleans and any more that come around.  
I don't understand why they'd take that position.